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24 june 2014
Pyotr Poroshenko’s four problems
(1)The new Ukrainian President faces a range of serious political, economic and social challenges – challenges on which the country’s future depends. But right now, he has neither the readiness, nor the desire and political will to tackle them.
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19 june 2014
Will the US strike again in Iraq?
The recent dramatic events in Iraq were both surprising and predictable. Their roots run into the recent past – namely, the invasion by U.S. troops and their allies of this country and the ensuing occupation
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15 june 2014
Kommersant Vlast: Fervent Advisors: Who in Washington ‘Gets’ Russia
The crisis in Russian-American relations is not only a result of conflicting interests in Ukraine, but also of a misunderstanding of the logic and intentions of the other side.
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7 june 2014
America’s Late Imperial Dilemma
President Barack Obama is under attack – from so-called liberal hawks, more or less to the left of center, as well as from active interventionists on the right – for being a weak president, leading a war-weary (even world-weary) America in retreat.
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4 june 2014
Ukraine Can Learn From Austria's Cold War Past
While nobody wants to go back to the Cold War, those of us who are old enough to remember it know that while tensions between Moscow and Washington ran high, they never exploded into outright conflict.
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29 may 2014
Transnistria Won’t Become Second Front in Russia-West Standoff
Director of the Center for Current Politics and Valdai Club expert Sergei Mikheyev is convinced there will be no retaliation to recent statements made by Dmitry Rogozin and leaders of Transnistria, and that the breakaway region won’t be joining Russia.
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25 may 2014
Ukraine is not Russia – but it cannot do without Russia
Though many of the presidential candidates in the upcoming elections in Ukraine are taking care to position themselves firmly as anti-Russian, the truth of the matter is that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian politicians are in one way or another tied to Russia – and the fragile state would do well to keep this in mind when planning for the future.
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23 may 2014
Solzhenitsyn’s foresight on Ukraine proves eerily prescient
The great writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn predicted the current situation in Ukraine almost half a century ago. A number of his writings from the Soviet period, including The Gulag Archipelago, contain ruminations on the issue of nationalism and the seeds for potential future ethnic unrest on Ukrainian territory.
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16 may 2014
Great Russia’s Grand Choice
For most of the post-Soviet years, Russia has been torn by a question that haunts its people and their rulers: Do Russians want their country to be an imperialist power feared by other nations or a land whose primary concern is its citizens’ well-being?
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15 may 2014
Cold War or Cool Calculation?
With escalating violence in southern and eastern Ukraine and no solution in sight, the Ukraine crisis has become the world’s most turbulent geopolitical conflict since that triggered by the terrorist attacks against the United States in 2001.
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11 may 2014
The Post-National Mirage
When the historian Ernest Renan dreamed of a European Confederation that would supersede the nation-state, he could not yet envisage the challenge posed by micro-states and para-states.
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11 may 2014
Kennan’s Revenge
Russia, Kennan argued, would seek to bring about the collapse of capitalism not by an armed attack, but by a mixture of bullying and subversion.
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10 may 2014
Putin puts Kiev behind the eight ball
Many observers were left wrong-footed by the comments made by the Russian president on May 7, in which he asked the southeast of Ukraine not to hold a referendum, expressed his support for presidential elections in the country on May 25, and announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border. What lies behind Putin’s unexpected move?
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8 may 2014
Russia will not risk entanglement in southeast Ukraine
(2)All the signs are that a military invasion of Ukraine’s restive eastern provinces by Russian forces is not on the cards. The likeliest scenario is that Moscow will allow Kiev to gradually claw back control of the east, though a prolonged crisis in relations with the West remains unavoidable.
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3 may 2014
A new (failing) state or more of the same?
Ukraine is a state in political turmoil. But how much of this is the fault of separatists in the east and how much comes from 'business-as-usual' corruption from the Kyiv government?
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30 april 2014
What a new Cold War between Russia and the US means for the world
(2)RD Exclusive: Robert Legvold, Professor Emeritus of Columbia University, analyzes the impact of a new Cold War between Russia and the West.
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26 april 2014
How to Prevent Ukraine's Tinderbox From Exploding
(1)In fact, some even say the Geneva meeting did more harm than good by raising false hopes that Russia and the West can overcome fundamental differences on Ukraine and by creating the illusion that all sides could reach consensus on a way out of the crisis.
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26 april 2014
Ukraine is a resounding defeat for the armchair experts on both sides
(1)The immense gulf in mutual distrust and suspicion that has characterized relations between Russia and the U.S. in recent years has been laid bare by the degree of misunderstanding “experts” from each side have shown in their attitudes toward the other during the Ukrainian crisis. Why do we appear to know each other less well than during the Cold War?
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26 april 2014
Ukrainian crisis demonstrates the fallacy of ‘either-or’ choices
The crisis in Ukraine has demonstrated the weakness of post-Soviet states, which should not be forced into making “either-or” choices between one side or another. The only way for these states to forge a productive future is to engage with both the West and Russia on a path of compromise and dialogue.
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1 april 2014
The man behind Putin’s pugnacity
(1)Sergey Karaganov breaks into a broad smile when asked why his two-decades-old ideas about Moscow “protecting” Russian speakers abroad are suddenly the centre of his country’s foreign policy.
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28 march 2014
Western Sanctions Are a Sign of Weakness
Unfortunately, today Ukraine cannot be regarded as a full-fledged state. To ignore this reality and to focus exclusively on the "Crimean problem" would be disingenuous and hypocritical.
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21 march 2014
Turkey's limitations in the Black Sea and Crimea
There are lots of intriguing elements analogous to the current conflict between the West and Russia over Crimea.
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21 march 2014
Look for more assertive Russia in Middle East
The sooner the tension surrounding Ukraine eases, and the global players return to their prior forms of cooperation, the better it will be for the Middle East.
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14 march 2014
A Total But Peaceful Battle Over Ukraine, For a New World Order
Everything will now depend on future developments and on Russia’s strategy. In my opinion, the Kremlin should plan its strategy very thoroughly and with due regard for the strategic nature of the ongoing confrontation.
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14 march 2014
The Russian Empire was Europe’s real melting pot
Under the Romanovs, Russia played the same role in Eastern Europe as ancient Rome did in the Mediterranean and the United States in the Americas, argues historian Pavel Kuzenkov. It was the melting pot of Europe, bringing together Christians, Muslims and indigenous peoples.
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10 march 2014
What does Russia want and why?
(2)“It is Putin the conservative and not Putin the realist who decided to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty.”
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10 march 2014
Forgetting His Own History: William Hague Once Understood How Not to Handle a Black Sea Crisis
Oxford historian, Mark Almond, recalls the lessons from history once taught by Foreign Secretary, William Hague, in his study of Pitt the Younger’s mishandling of what he called the “Ochakov fiasco” in 1791.
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8 march 2014
Interests Always Need to be Protected
(4)Russia had to move its troops into Crimea. If we confine ourselves to addressing the initial tasks and do not rush ‘to take Vienna’, to borrow Bismarck’s words, the West is unlikely to impose tough sanctions against Russia.
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22 february 2014
Afghanistan,Then and Now
Once again, the modern Afghan urban tradition is fighting for its life against a rural Islamist insurgency. Once again, the state is overwhelmingly dependent on aid from a foreign great power for its continued survival.
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15 february 2014
Afghanistan: 25 Years After Withdrawal of the Soviet Troops
(1)Twenty-five years have passed since the Russians finally pulled out of Afghanistan: long enough to look back with some objectivity, and to draw parallels with the war which the Americans have been fighting there since 2001.
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Russia’s Victory, new Concert of Nations
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Sergey Karaganov, Elisabeth Hellenbroich -
Here’s Why U.S.-Russia Military Conflict Over Syria Is Looking More And More Likely
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Fyodor Lukyanov -
Russia, China and ‘Balance of Dependence’ in Greater Eurasia
(2206)
Glenn Diesen -
Defense Through Leadership: Turkey on the Eve of Its Constitutional Referendum
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Vladimir Avatkov -
Into the Unknown: U.S.-Russian Relations Unhinged
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Robert Legvold
Russia’s Victory, new Concert of Nations
Russia was resolved and would win, which it actually did by the beginning of 2016. Threats to tear its economy to tatters and organize regime change either through asphyxiating sanctions, organizing “a conspiracy of oligarchs” or popular discontent have been forgotten.
Here’s Why U.S.-Russia Military Conflict Over Syria Is Looking More And More Likely
To repair his abysmal approval rating, Trump is likely to further intervene in Syria, prompting a dangerous Russian response.
Russia and NATO: A Paradoxical Crisis
The Euro-Atlantic security system is a highly complex equation with many unknowns.
Should Moscow put a brake on rapprochement with Washington?
Three areas of cooperation with Russia outlined in a leaked U.S. State Department document might suffice initially for an amelioration of the currently dismal bilateral relationship. Yet, doubts persist that the Trump administration has enough dry powder to get a modest “reset” kick-started.
Russia’s Allies and the Geopolitical Frontier in Eurasia
The risk of Russia’s involvement in low-intensity military conflicts has been growing since the early 2000s. Instability along many stretches of the border has forced Moscow to increase its military presence in the neighboring areas.
Defense Through Leadership: Turkey on the Eve of Its Constitutional Referendum
The April 16 referendum will focus on power distribution rather than institution building. In other words, the organizers saw it as an opportunity to expand the President’s powers and allow him to rule longer. In their turn, Turks perceived it as an institutional choice to contribute to the development of the state.
Turkey and Russia, Erdogan and Putin
By the summer of 2016, it had become relatively commonplace in Western policy circles to wonder if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was following in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and, if so, how far down that path he would take Turkey.
The Need to Massage Egos: Status Politics as a Crucial Element of US-Russia Relations
Despite multiple official declarations of non-adversarial intentions issued by the United States and Russia over the past quarter-century, both sides have been unable to avoid repeated bouts of conflict escalation.