© "Russia in Global Affairs". № 3, July - September 2008

There is an anticipation of change in the world today, although no one can say exactly how things will change. This anticipation stems from the handover of power – already accomplished in Russia and which will soon take place in the United States; from new internal turbulence in the European Union; from the marked growth of China’s presence on the global stage; and from ever new signs of a crisis in various international institutions. All these factors bring about a general feeling of uncertainty but, at the same time, an underlying desire for something new – new institutions, new alliances and new types of mutual relations. For now, this is no more than a feeling, although it soon may take a clearer shape, considering the rapid developments in the modern world.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his article rethinks the international situation and Russia’s place in it. “Psychologically, it is easy to understand those who wish to leave everything the way it is, in order to die in the Europe or the America in which they were born,” he writes. However, “the rapid changes do not allow such a luxury,” he adds.

Alexei Arbatov comments on an article published in our previous issue and offers his own explanation of why the world system has lost its stability and how it can be restored.

Mark Entin and Andrei Zagorsky offer an in-depth analysis of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe – the structure which underlay the former European order and which is now in an obvious crisis. The authors argue that the organization’s potential has not been fully tapped yet and that it still can be useful to meet Russia’s interests. Arkady Dubnov writes about how another post-Soviet country – Kazakhstan – is trying to have the OSCE serve its interests. In particular, Astana will preside over the OSCE in 2010.

Azhdar Kurtov focuses on China which has been skillfully and very consistently consolidating its political and economic positions wherever it finds it necessary, specifically in Central Asia.
Rafael Khakimov proposes tapping a resource that has been little used in Russia’s foreign policy – namely, the Islamic factor, which the author argues has great potential.

Pavel Zolotarev turns to the history of the most controversial international project of recent time – missile defense. He believes that there still is a chance to turn missile defense from a bone of contention into a basis for constructive cooperation between Russia, the U.S. and the European Union. Sergei Markedonov analyzes the strategic positions of Azerbaijan, which has also been involved in missile defense discussions. Sergei Minasyan writes about the regional aspects of Russia’s desire to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. He believes that this decision, should it be made, would have a strong impact on security in the South Caucasus.

Yuri Golotyuk raises a very “cold” subject which is expected to become a “hot” problem – Russia’s efforts to ensure its sovereignty in the Arctic. Growing competition for resources in that region and global warming have added to the importance of the issue.

Toby Gati writes about Russia’s huge potential in the area of renewable energy. Angel de la Vega Navarro discusses whether global regulation is possible on the world energy market, while Nodari Simonia focuses on “energy animosity” between the EU and Russia.

Vyacheslav Morozov analyzes how the European Union has changed over the last two decades and why its relations with Russia are so complicated today. In his view, the difficulty stems from the fact that Moscow and European capitals are guided by different logic, above all a historical one. Anatoly Torkunov writes about the difficulties of “historical policy.” The same subject is analyzed in detail by Alexei Miller. Valery Tishkov focuses on the national identity issue and on how this identity evolved in different periods of Russian history. Olga Tynyanova argues that the unity of the Russian Federation still does not have a solid institutional and legal foundation, but rests, above all, on political factors.

Our next issue will focus on the future of Russian-U.S. relations, on a possible model for Russia-EU integration, on the prospects for interaction between Russia, India and China, and on other issues.