China has lately been in the focus of the Russian mass media. This increased attention can partly be explained by the upcoming 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, due in 2004. However, the main reason is the consistently growing interest in our southerly neighbor.

Today’s China is a rapidly developing state which is rightly viewed as a political power center and a driving force of the global economy. There are serious grounds for stating that by the middle of the 21st century China will become a world leader.

Already, China boasts the world’s sixth largest economy and fourth largest foreign trade. In 2003, China’s gross domestic product increased by 9.1 percent, and its per capita GDP exceeded U.S. $1,000 – for the first time. The country plans to quadruple its GDP by the year 2020 from its present figure, bringing it to over U.S. $4 trillion. This goal is quite feasible, provided that China maintains its present economic growth rate.

Given such a potential, China is a country to be reckoned with by every nation, even ones that are not interested in China’s prosperity and stability. There is barely a government in the world that has not thought about how it should build its relations with Beijing in the new century. As a rule, the choice is in favor of broad cooperation in all areas.

Russia, too, has made a choice, although it was not easy. Russian-Chinese relations have seen their share of ups and downs over the last few centuries. In the not so distant past, there have been periods when these relations were strained; occasionally they exploded into open confrontation. It took many years, a high level of political wisdom and the will of the leadership from the bordering nations in order to find an optimum model for interstate contacts. This model fully meets Russia’s and China’s national interests and the interests of durable peace and security across the globe. Moving step by step, the two countries in 1996 came to the agreement that in the 21st century they can and must be strategic partners.

This new quality of bilateral relations was formalized in the Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, signed by Russia and China on July 16, 2001. The treaty formulated the main principles and guidelines for the two countries’ interaction in the long term, and laid the foundation for the further development of relations between Moscow and Beijing.

Russia and China entered the third millennium having made several major achievements, among them the solution of their border dispute bequeathed by former times. The two countries share one of the world’s longest land frontiers which stretches for over 4,300 kilometers. Considering geographical and historical factors, of major importance is Article 6 of the Russian-Chinese treaty, which unequivocally states that the parties have no territorial claims to each other. As for the continuing negotiations on two small sections of the border, it seems that we can expect their successful conclusion in the near future.

Over the last 15 years, the two countries have laid a solid legal foundation for bilateral interaction. Since 1992, they have concluded more than 180 agreements at the interstate and intergovernmental levels. Fifty-five pairs of regions and cities in Russia and China have signed agreements which call for mutual cooperation in different fields. Eight intergovernmental subcommissions and 25 standing working groups have been set up in the economic, scientific and technical fields, while five subcommissions work in the social and humanitarian spheres.

This comprehensive mechanism of consultations ensures a steadily increasing range of bilateral economic cooperation and trade, which are acquiring ever more civilized forms. In the 1990s, annual bilateral trade between the two partners stood at U.S. $6 to 8 billion, in 2003 it reached U.S. $15.7 billion. Unlike in previous years, over 80 percent of Russian-Chinese trade is now done in the non-state sector.

Russia and China have fundamentally improved their cooperation on the international stage. Their approaches to practically all major issues in global affairs are beginning to merge, thus enabling them to closely coordinate their foreign-policy efforts and act jointly or side-by-side in order to uphold their vital interests more effectively and strengthen their international positions.

However, it is too early to say that there is a national consensus in Russia regarding the present and future prospects for good relations with China. The Russian mass media regularly publishes dire forecasts about the “imminent threat” facing Russia in general and its military and economic security in particular. The Russian people know very little about everyday life in contemporary China. Although business contacts between Russia and China, including shuttle and border trade, have been stepped up, cooperation in humanitarian, cultural and other fields has been decreasing. Beneficial contacts between public and political organizations are now only occasional. As a result, the Russians know more about Britain or France than about neighboring China. This factor largely explains the persistence of historical stereotypes.

Russia cannot deny that problems do exist in its relations with China. And can it be otherwise when the two great neighbors have interests that often overlap? Naturally, Russia must not close its eyes to the disagreements and obstacles which impede the development of full-scale cooperation with China in all spheres. These obstacles must be seriously analyzed and removed, especially since the high level of mutual trust and understanding between the two countries allows them to openly discuss all types of sensitive issues and find compromise solutions.

At the same time, Russia must keep in mind the existence of a ‘red line,’ beyond which trespassing is inadmissible. This must be heeded in regard to the norms of our interstate relations, as well as the national interests of Russia itself. For example, political stability inside China is not a subject for idle speculation, and it can only be viewed as inappropriate when some politicians and unscrupulous businesspeople attempt to play on the issue of Taiwan. Russia is not going to revise its firm policy on Taiwan. The support of China’s stable development serves Russia’s strategic state interests.

Much is to be done in developing trade and economic ties between the two countries, and the present structure of bilateral trade needs to be improved. The share of high-tech products involved in this trade does not correspond to the industrial potentials of the Russian and Chinese economies. It is time for Moscow and Beijing to abandon primitive bartering and develop modern forms of economic and investment cooperation, as well as the transport and inter-bank infrastructures. It is also vital that the countries work to enhance the ties between the small and mid-size businesses.

Many problems are yet to be solved in cooperation in the fuel/energy sector. The desire of our Chinese partners to meet their rapidly growing demand for energy resources by increasing guaranteed Russian supplies is understandable. Yet there should be no haste in addressing this issue. This area of interaction is of strategic and long-term importance and requires billions of U.S. dollars in investment. The parties must continue to search for balanced answers to these questions without resorting to emotion.

The Russian citizens who are living in bordering areas with China are naturally more concerned with local problems, such as illegal migration, poaching being committed by Chinese citizens on Russian territory, environmental pollution, and so on. The ecological problem may become the greatest problem of them all. The rapid growth of the Chinese economy is accompanied by increased attacks on the environment. Deforestation, together with the ensuing destructive floods and soil exhaustion, could eventually grow into a transborder problem, which could be solved only with a high degree of cooperation between the two countries. It seems that China is prepared for this dialog.

Although the migration problem does exist in Russian-Chinese relations, its dimensions should not be overestimated, as the Russian mass media tends to do. According to reliable estimates, the total number of Chinese citizens now permanently living in Russia hardly exceeds 150,000-200,000 people. And the official figures of the latest Russian census indicate a much smaller number – 35,000 people.

There are no grounds for suggesting that the Chinese government ‘prompts’ its citizens to move to Russia, especially illegally. Russia and China are now organizing a special working group which will address migration problems with the goal of arriving at a comprehensive solution to the issue.

Another very important area of cooperation involves the law enforcement bodies of the two countries. Their joint efforts will help to effectively counter various threats posed by organized crime and corruption. Furthermore, it will help to make the lives of average citizens more secure, as well as establish ties between the economic entities operating in the border areas.

Problems that arise in Russia’s relations with China often are the reverse side of the fast development of bilateral interaction. However, instead of dramatizing the differences, the parties should develop a systematic approach for their settlement.

It is very important to strengthen the social basis of Russian-Chinese relations by promoting people-to-people contacts, developing tourism, strengthening interregional and transborder relationships. It is also essential that the two countries increase their interaction in the social and humanitarian areas, in culture, the sciences and the mass media. These efforts will be our contribution to eliminating many false stereotypes regarding the perception of China, which still exists in the minds of many Europeans and Americans.

These stereotypes stem from the uncertainty about the potential conduct of a ‘strong China’ on the international stage after it has carried out its grandiose modernization plans and become an economic, technological and military superpower. The last 20-odd years have shown that as China is rapidly developing, its foreign policy has become more balanced and oriented toward integration into the world economy; this has enhanced its level of cooperation with various countries. There are good grounds to believe that this tendency will continue. As China’s competitiveness increases, it increasingly upholds and advances its national interests. This is a natural process, and the only normal reaction to it from other states, including Russia, should be enhancing the effectiveness of their own policies while developing constructive interaction with China in various fields.

The potential for economic interaction between Russia and China is tremendous, and its realization will determine the economic future of the entire Eurasian and Pacific space. If we look at Russian-Chinese relations in a global context – through the prism of the global situation, and from the point of view of the vital interests of the two countries – we will see that a strategic partnership between Russia and China, and one that is based on trust, will be an enduring value in the 21st century. It will serve as the bulwark for an equitable, democratic and multipolar world order, which is now being built. The success of this relationship is of vital importance for international peace and security, as well as for the tranquility and wellbeing of the two great neighboring nations.