Relations between Russia and the European Union were a top priority for Russia’s foreign policy in the first half of 2004. The active and constructive efforts of the two parties helped them solve the most acute of their outstanding problems by the summer. Russia agreed to extend the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) to the new EU members, while the European Union eased its position on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization. However, the parties have yet to work out a long-term model for their bilateral relations.

These relations were the focus of discussions held within the framework of the Russian Economic Forum, convened in London in late April. Russian speakers at the discussions included Sergei Karaganov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and Chairman of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs, and Alexander Livshits, Deputy Director General of the Russian Aluminium Company and member of the Russia in Global Affairs Editorial Board.

Karaganov told the audience that Russia-EU relations, the way they had been developing since June 1994 when the PCA was signed, had largely exhausted themselves. Much of what the parties hoped for ten years ago had not materialized, while many objectives had proved simply unfeasible. Karaganov believes that the EU bears much responsibility for the lack of headway in relations between the parties. The EU has not demonstrated a real interest in Russia becoming its full-fledged partner, while it has reneged on its policy of rapprochement with Russia, proclaimed in 1999, Karaganov said. Europe is trying to impose on Russia its own agenda, which does not always meet Russian interests.

In the meantime, the European Union is spending much of its energy addressing domestic problems posed by the EU’s expansion and complex institutional reforms. The EU itself is an overly bureaucratized organization which has lost its dynamism. Furthermore, it is increasingly unable to respond to growing external challenges.

The EU member countries have made no progress in formulating common foreign and defense policies. This poses difficulties for their outside partners, since they do not know the EU’s position. Brussels often says one thing, while major EU members say something the opposite. Moreover, these members often fail to reach agreement on fundamental issues between themselves. The EU’s expansion has only aggravated this problem. On the whole, the European Union is presently an inadequate partner for Russia, Karaganov summed up.

But, he added, Russia is also responsible for the failures in cooperation. Economic reforms in Russia have not been proceeding the way Russia and the EU had expected them to. Furthermore, there are some unfavorable tendencies in Russia’s political model.

Nevertheless, Karaganov expressed confidence that the interests of both Russia and the EU coincide to a much greater extent than they diverge; therefore the parties “are destined to find mutually acceptable forms and methods for their cooperation.”

Terence Brown, Director General of Lending Operations of the European Investment Bank, agreed that the EU lacks dynamism; its overly bureaucratization is a source of concern for many Europeans. However, he pointed out that the EU is not a static organization, but rather a changing once, and that the European integration is a process rather than a result. Brown admitted that European relations with Russia have been on the periphery of Europe’s attention over the past few years, since the EU’s primary task had been preparing and implementing its greatest enlargement in history. Now that the EU has more closely approached the borders of Russia, it will redouble its efforts to develop contacts with this country. However, he added, Russia must do its ‘half of the job’ as well. Moscow has not always displayed enthusiasm in building its relations with the EU as it has in recent days.

Brown described the exchange of critical statements and documents between Moscow and Brussels in early 2004 as very useful, noting that the parties should express their dissatisfaction openly, instead of trying to hide it in order to make a favorable impression. The challenges now confronting the EU and Moscow do not know state frontiers. These are environmental and public health problems, not to mention organized crime. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, Russia and the European Union are united by a major political issue, namely their common devotion to multilateral approaches to the settlement of international conflicts.

Brown said that, although the present legislative basis for Russia-EU relations (the PCA) needs some corrections, it nevertheless offers healthy possibilities for making headway.

Alexander Livshits proposed not inventing new, unknown models for Russia-EU relations, but choosing an already existing one. The following are four models that the EU uses to build special relations with its outside partners:

(1) Providing the status of a candidate member, which later becomes a full-fledged member.
(2) The European Economic Area which unites the EU with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. The EEA Agreement binds these countries to adopt a majority of EU norms and standards in exchange for access to the common market.
(3) Relations with Switzerland which are built on an extensive package of bilateral agreements in various fields.
(4) The free trade zone which unites the EU with other countries, among them South Africa, Egypt and Israel.
Livshits said it is only the first model that cannot be applied to Russia, as the size of this country makes any discussions about its EU membership not very serious.

However, instead of choosing one of these time-tested models, attempts are being made to invent something new – a fifth model for the Common European Economic Space. Theoretically, this idea is not bad, Livshits noted, but it lacks definite deadlines, plans and objectives. Furthermore, it will not stimulate efforts to increase relations. The CEES format should be preserved as a platform for negotiations, but after Russia joins the WTO one of the above standard models should be discussed. At that point, the one that suits Moscow the best should be chosen, he said.

He described a free trade zone between Russia and the EU as the most optimum model. It would provide for a very specific plan of action that both parties should take. Russia’s entry into the WTO will be a crucial moment, since after that time, many economic problems in bilateral relations will be addressed on the basis of WTO rules. Livshits noted that Russia should not hope for any special concessions from the EU.

Laurent Ruseckas, Director of the Emerging Europe & Eurasia Practice at Eurasia Group, made emphasis on the lack of progress in Russia’s energy market reform, which he described as an obstacle to cooperation. Western partners are interested in an early liberalization of domestic energy prices in Russia and would like to see Russia permit Central Asian fuel into the European market through its pipelines.

Ruseckas said he was sympathetic with the Russian government’s position that oil and gas reserves are Russia’s natural competitive advantage on the world market. This advantage is counterbalanced by the great distance of its pipelines, as well as Russia’s harsh climate. Yet, Russia should not abuse this natural advantage, as full-scale energy cooperation with Western partners is in the interests of Russia, too.

Ruseckas pointed out that Russia-West interaction in the post-Soviet space, which both Russia and the EU regard as their ‘near abroad,’ is of major importance for both parties. The forthcoming elections in Ukraine, due in October, may become a turning point. Ukraine has repeatedly declared its desire  to integrate into the Euro-Atlantic structures, but it will have little chance for that if its present system of government – undemocratic and corrupt – persists. Ruseckas said Ukraine’s integration into the Western structures is a very sensitive issue for Russia, and it is difficult to say what Moscow’s reaction would be if Kiev launches serious preparations for joining NATO. Russia would more easily tolerate a Ukrainian move to integrate into the EU.
Summing up the discussion, its chairman Quentin Peel, International Affairs Editor of The Financial Times, supported the view expressed by some of the speakers that it is very difficult to say what the European Union will be in seven to ten years. Its relations with Russia will depend on very many factors, both external and internal.

Russia is undergoing serious changes, as well, and it is also unclear what their outcome will be. This is the reason why it is difficult to forecast a formula for future Russia-EU relations – they simply run up against too many unknown factors.