© "Russia in Global Affairs". № 1, January - March 2007

Russia is entering a momentous election season. In December, Russian voters will elect a new parliament, while in March 2008 they will vote for a new president. Thus, the prospects for changes will be a prominent subject in our journal throughout the year, especially since the change of power in Russia traditionally has an impact on all spheres of politics, including in the realm of foreign policy. Experts differ in their forecasts about the future, yet they agree that the next presidential term will be particularly important. Russia’s transitional period is coming to an end, and the country will have to choose a long-term strategy for its development.

What will the global conditions be like during the next decade for Russia’s development? One group of experts, who participated in a study entitled, The World Around Russia: 2017, presented a comprehensive picture of the shape of the future. The study marked 15 years since the establishment of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, the most representative and influential non-governmental organization in Russia in this sphere. The study will be presented in full at the Council’s anniversary assembly in March and will later be published on our journal’s web site.

This issue carries two sections from this study that are devoted to subjects of particular importance to Russia: the prospects of East Asia, a neighboring region that plays an increasing role in Russia’s policy and economy, as well as a forecast on global energy development and Russia’s role in it.

Energy problems are also the focus of two more articles in this issue. Vladimir Feygin comments on Gazprom’s decision not to set up an international consortium for developing the rich Shtokman gas field. He views this decision as a manifestation of a new global tendency. Tatyana Romanova analyzes why Russia and the European Union fail to achieve mutual understanding in the energy sphere.

Vladislav Inozemtsev offers an unorthodox view on relations with Europe: he argues that Russia and the United States are very much alike, as both are nothing more than the “outskirts” of the European “center.”

Ivan Safranchuk makes an attempt to determine the real priorities of Russia’s foreign policy by analyzing the budget allocations to this governmental sector. Some of his conclusions are rather unexpected. For example, Moscow’s policy toward the Commonwealth of Independent States is not an overwhelming priority, he argues, as it is officially stated. Several other articles focus on Russia’s relations with its neighbors. Russian veteran diplomat Yuri Dubinin offers his reminiscences about the difficult negotiations with Ukraine over the status of the Black Sea Fleet. Zurab Todua weighs Russia’s chances of restoring normal relations with Moldova. Alexander Aksenyonok discusses a hot topic: Will the future status of Kosovo become a precedent for solving the problem of breakaway territories in Georgia? Vladimir Ovchinsky writes about the activities of the “Chinese mafia” in Russia.

Russia’s ongoing economic development is a perennial topic for our contributors. Vladimir Mau analyzes various modernization experiences across the world and proposes models for Russia’s economic strategy. Valentin Kudrov argues that if Russia continues with market reforms, it will have an opportunity to gain leading global positions in the next few decades. Olga Vendina discusses various scenarios for the development of major Russian cities, which are set to become epicenters of economic growth.

Finally, the Chairman of Russia’s Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, broaches a difficult international subject: how to ensure the observance of human rights amidst the global counterterrorism struggle and the broadened powers of the security services?

In our next issue, we will return to our primary topic: the role and place of Russia in the system of influential international institutions – the G8, the European Union, NATO, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.