© "Russia in Global Affairs". № 2, April - June 2007

The last few months have been marked by heated debates as to whether a multipolar world is now a reality and whether a new Cold War is imminent.

Actually, one option rules out the other. Within a system where there are many centers of force, a Soviet-American-type confrontation is impossible. Naturally, Moscow and the Western capitals are free to exchange criticisms and even threats between each other. But in doing so, they must bear in mind that it will be third parties that will score in this game. Such parties include international terrorist organizations, as well as ambitious nations that seek to achieve “historical justice” taking thereby their “worthy” place on the international stage.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasizes the complex nature of the current world order. In an article that he contributed to this issue, Mr. Lavrov expresses his conviction that attempts to establish unilateral dominion in the world have failed. As a result, painstaking efforts will have to be made to restore the global balance on the basis of equality.

The G8 has a special role to play in these efforts. Many analysts view it as a prototype of a new global governance body. Canadian researcher John Kirton and his Russian colleague Marina Larionova write about the prospects for this group and Russia’s role in it.

Is NATO able to become an instrument for ensuring global security? An official of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Mikhail Kokeyev, challenges arguments that favor NATO’s ability to keep peace, put forward by NATO Headquarters officers Rad van den Akker and Michael R?hle.

General Vladimir Dvorkin analyzes U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. He believes these plans do not pose a military threat to Russia; nevertheless, he views Washington’s intentions as very harmful since they have the ability to destroy the very foundation of strategic partnership. Another Russian analyst, General Pavel Zolotarev, warns about the dangers of searching for enemies as a pretext for beefing up defense budgets.

Professor Sergei Luzyanin focuses on Moscow’s policy toward fast-developing countries of Asia, which play an increasing role in Russia’s international relations. Europe is watching with increasing suspicion the role that the “Eastern vector” is playing in Russian policy, while trying to determine if this new course means a renunciation of the “European choice,” as declared in the past by Moscow. Professor Vladimir Pankov weighs the pros and cons of free trade between Russia and the European Union, while economist Vlad Ivanenko compares Russian-EU integration with other possibilities opening up before Russia.

Russian scholar Timofei Bordachev reflects on the prospects of the European Union, which recently marked its 50th anniversary, and outlines the contours of its future relationship with Russia. This issue also carries an interview with Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission and one of the most outstanding fathers of the United Europe, about the EU’s history and future. Meanwhile, Belarusian journalist Yuri Drakokhrust draws an unexpected conclusion in his article. He argues that, should Belarus join the European Union, it will be a reliable stronghold of Germany, as opposed to the United States, now ardently supported by other post-Communist countries.

Georgia’s ex-Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili raises one of the most acute problems of our times – the final consequences of the Kosovo settlement. She proposes that nations work together to create universal criteria for settling frozen conflicts in order to make the Kosovo case a positive, rather than negative, precedent.

Russian political analyst Sergei Markedonov proposes that Moscow and Tbilisi leave aside their mutual territorial problems for the present time and focus on issues that could improve their bilateral relations.

Finally, Russian scholar Alexei Arbatov comments on the Russian president’s annual press conference. Analyzing the head of state’s replies, he draws conclusions about the issues that confront the Russian state today.

In our next issue, we will continue discussing Kosovo-related problems, as well as offer analysis on Russia’s federal system, the Islamic factor in Russia’s foreign policy, the threat of nuclear terrorism and the global financial architecture. Finally, we will focus on Ukraine, which is experiencing turbulent times once again.