© "Russia in Global Affairs". № 2, July - September 2007

Last year, U.S. political analyst Leon Aron offered a forecast in our journal about the future development of Russia-U.S. relations. He said that people in both countries should put on their “life jackets” and be prepared for “some heavy rolling, pitching, rocking and seasickness.”

In recent months, we have witnessed some hard turns in foreign policy. At first, it seemed that we were taxiing toward a new Cold War; then the steering wheel suddenly turned, leaving everyone perplexed about the Kremlin’s “peace offensive.” And still, a hot election season and the finale of the presidential election campaign are ahead of us.

Russia’s foreign policy cannot be viewed in isolation from the situation inside the country. The election campaign, gaining momentum in Russia, is having increasing effect on Moscow’s international conduct. Will the power vertical, built by President Vladimir Putin, survive after he is gone? Or will the elite divide once again?

Andrei Okara analyzes the sources and prospects of ‘sovereign democracy,’ the main ideological postulate of the incumbent leadership in Russia. Vladislav Inozemtsev foretells a bitter struggle for Putin’s political legacy, but not before March 2008. This will happen later, it is predicted, when the formal issue of power takeover has already been decided.

Svetlana Babayeva points to the emergence of a moral discourse in Russian politics and attempts to figure out what effect it may have on the country’s development. Ivan Sukhov evaluates the strength of Russia’s federal system, which has gone through marked changes during the years of Putin’s presidency.

And what is happening between Russia and the leading Western states? The more one inquires into the heart of the matter, the better one sees the complexity and ambiguity of the situation. This crucial epoch, which began with the downfall of Communism in the late 1980s, is far from over and may still bring about serious upheavals. The creation of a new model for the global system is of utmost importance as well, Timofei Bordachev argues in his article.

Thomas Graham, who recently left his service at the White House, holds that Russia and the United States, the two superpowers of the previous epoch, cannot find a common language, above all, for psychological reasons. Russia feels stronger than it really is (and subconsciously senses this contradiction), while the U.S. does not have confidence in its own strength, although there are no grounds for such self-disparagement. The author believes that the parties can overcome their mutual diffidence only through close cooperation.

The settlement of the Kosovo problem will test the ability of the major powers to untie the intricate knots that have hampered their mutual relations. Slovakia’s former prime minister, Jan Charnogursky, calls on Moscow to take a principled position and defend the rights of the Serbian minority. Russian veteran diplomat Vladimir Kazimirov – who insists that the crisis is not merely a local conflict, but a bitter juridical conflict between two basic principles of international law – provides further insight into the Kosovo issue.

Alexei Arbatov warns about a possible revival of the Cold War spirit. A zero-sum game is out of the question, he believes, because ambitious countries in Asia, not to mention the sponsors of international terrorism, stand to gain from a Russia-West rivalry. Along these lines, Gen. Andrei Novikov, director of the CIS Antiterrorism Center, warns about the threat of terrorists obtaining radioactive material and nuclear technologies.

Alexander Lukin analyzes in detail the situation in Central Asia, yet another potentially conflict region where the interests of Russia, China and the United States overlap. Mehdi Sanaie, professor at Teheran University, expresses Iran’s apprehensions over Russia’s policy toward his country. Alexei Malashenko writes about the difficult relationships between Moscow and the Islamic world.

Sergei Sokolov discusses what Russia should do to be best prepared for negotiations with the European Union that could usher in a new fundamental agreement between the parties. For now, the prospects of such negotiations remain uncertain. Martin Gilman analyzes the prospects of the ruble replacing the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency.

Meanwhile, Russia in Global Affairs continues to keep a close watch on the situation in Ukraine. Historian and writer Roy Medvedev discusses whether a real nation-state can be built there, or whether the ethnic principle of nation-building is ruinous for the country.

Our next issue will focus on election passions in Russia; the phenomenon of successful states that fail to follow Western democratic canons; the situation in various neighboring countries of Russia; prospects for a “gas OPEC” as well as a new Russia-EU treaty; and much more.