Alexander Lukin is Director of the Center for East Asian and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).
It is a matter of whether the SCO will evolve as just a club of states, or whether it will become a serious international mechanism comparable in influence to ASEAN or APEC or, perhaps, even excelling them. Considering the unpredictable situation in Central Asia, which may see yet events similar to the “Arab Awakening,” the SCO may soon prove to be very essential.
The recent revolution in Kyrgyzstan – the second in five years – and the bloodshed in the south of the country that followed it have cast doubts over the country’s viability as an independent state. There is yet another important factor: an outwardly solid authoritarian regime, one among many in the territory of the former Soviet Union, collapsed within a few days. This raises a more general question: Is this an exceptional case or does it open a new chapter in post-Soviet history?
The BRICs have all chances to become the most influential of all the international associations that include Russia, as it is a center for harmonizing the interests of major non-Western centers of the multipolar world. An evolution of the BRIC structure into an alternative to the G8 would meet Russian interests.
The post-Soviet foreign policy paradigm rested on the exclusive role of interaction with the West. A foreign policy course that meets Russia’s national interests in earnest could become an alternative to the post-Soviet approach. Its goal might be a return of foreign policy attractiveness to Russia – something that is known as ‘soft power’ today.
The United States’ political image in Central Asia, especially after the problems with Uzbekistan, has been considerably undermined. The majority of Central Asian countries understand that political orientation toward Washington may bring about many problems at home.
It is a matter of whether the SCO will evolve as just a club of states, or whether it will become a serious international mechanism comparable in influence to ASEAN or APEC or, perhaps, even excelling them. Considering the unpredictable situation in Central Asia, which may see yet events similar to the “Arab Awakening,” the SCO may soon prove to be very essential.
The recent revolution in Kyrgyzstan – the second in five years – and the bloodshed in the south of the country that followed it have cast doubts over the country’s viability as an independent state. There is yet another important factor: an outwardly solid authoritarian regime, one among many in the territory of the former Soviet Union, collapsed within a few days. This raises a more general question: Is this an exceptional case or does it open a new chapter in post-Soviet history?
The BRICs have all chances to become the most influential of all the international associations that include Russia, as it is a center for harmonizing the interests of major non-Western centers of the multipolar world. An evolution of the BRIC structure into an alternative to the G8 would meet Russian interests.
The post-Soviet foreign policy paradigm rested on the exclusive role of interaction with the West. A foreign policy course that meets Russia’s national interests in earnest could become an alternative to the post-Soviet approach. Its goal might be a return of foreign policy attractiveness to Russia – something that is known as ‘soft power’ today.
The United States’ political image in Central Asia, especially after the problems with Uzbekistan, has been considerably undermined. The majority of Central Asian countries understand that political orientation toward Washington may bring about many problems at home.
When the Baltic countries entered NATO and the European Union a couple of years ago, many thought it was the end of the centuries-old "red line." Euro-Atlantic organizations had crossed into the former Russian and Soviet empires.
In September 2004, the Russian city of Novgorod hosted an international conference entitled Russia at the Turn of the Century: Hopes and Reality. Its organizers were the RIA Novosti news agency, the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Russia in Global Affairs, and The Moscow Times.