Anatoly Vishnevsky is Director of the Institute of Demography of the State University- Higher School of Economics. He holds a Doctorate in Economics.
Rejection of anti-migrant mythology should not lead to an underestimation of the risks associated with migration, but help develop a sober constructive policy that would minimize migration risks and maximize its benefits.
An excessive rapprochement with growing China, which lacks resources of its own, may impose “allied obligations” on Russia, which can ultimately result in the limitation of its rights to its own resources and to territories where they are located. Moscow will be able to successfully defend its interests only by relying on the solidarity of countries of the North, which are in the same demographic boat with it.
The Soviet political shell has been crushed, but Russia is still wandering around amidst the scattered fragments of that shell, which remain hopeful that they will be put together again some day. They are hoping for a counter-modernization union, albeit with a non-Communist configuration.
In spite of all of its risks and challenges, immigration offers Russia a chance to survive and to carry out a kind of peaceful expansion. A strategy of diehard anti-immigration isolationism, on the other hand, will lead it nowhere.
The dramatic demographic changes in the world are creating an unprecedented challenge for all states, yet the problems confronting Russia, a country with a low birth rate and a very high death rate, are particularly acute.
Their solution will require a revision of many traditional views; however, neither the nation nor its leaders are prepared for that.
At a roundtable event in Moscow, top experts debated the “hypocritical” and “insincere” foreign policies of both Russia and the West in the post-Cold War era.
Vladimir Putin has mentioned several times that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical mistake. Although these words were often interpreted as his desire to constitute that country, there is little reason to believe this.
The April 16 referendum will focus on power distribution rather than institution building. In other words, the organizers saw it as an opportunity to expand the President’s powers and allow him to rule longer. In their turn, Turks perceived it as an institutional choice to contribute to the development of the state.
If the larger picture defies prediction, the immediate future is scarcely more transparent. In the U.S. case, the known unknowns are numerous. They begin with the question of how much deck furniture Trump is willing to overturn in order to pursue an “America First” strategy.
In the wake of the For Fair Elections protest movement in Russia in 2011-2012, the Kremlin initiated a new strategy of state-society relations that was aimed at diminishing the propensity for protest in the next election cycle.
Belarus’ traditional structural dependence on Russia is increasing, and Minsk’s freedom of maneuver continues to shrink.