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| The Magic Numbers of 2009 |
Sergei Karaganov
The unfinished nature of the Cold War and World War II is creating a dangerous vacuum. If attempts to enlarge NATO persist, Russia may
turn from a revisionist state changing the disadvantageous rules of the game imposed on it in the 1990s into a revanchist state. |
| Passions over Water |
Vassily Belozyorov
Russia, a country possessing so many full-flowing rivers and water reservoirs, will unavoidably get into the epicenter of the unfolding strife over freshwater resources, and this calls for a clear-cut official position that would send unequivocal signals to our foreign partners. |
| Words and Deeds |
Alexander Ignatenko
The thirty years that have passed since the beginning of the Soviet Union’s Afghan campaign have made Washington even more confident that it can use Islam as a factor of international politics. After the Afghan war U.S. allies that had participated in it began to create in droves Muslim extremist and terrorist groups to serve their own international purposes. |
| Accepting the Inevitable? |
Mikhail Troitsky
As long as U.S. President Barack Obama is intent on pursuing a more pragmatic foreign policy than his predecessor, who considered supporting Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to be a matter of principle, American stakes in the future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia may decrease. |
| Peace and Cooperation in Central Eurasia: An Iranian Outlook |
Jahangir Karami
Iran’s and Russia’s independent activities on the international stage are a factor that helps counterbalance U.S. unilateralism. The independent policies of Russia, Iran and other countries, particularly the new emerging economies, contribute to the diversification of the international system, promotion of national sovereignty and respect for the principles of international law, such as the non-use of force and non-interference in internal affairs. |
| SCO-2009: Development Problems |
Sergei Luzyanin
The implementation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization project is both a serious challenge to Russia and, at the same time, a chance to use collective resources for consolidating its positions in Central Asia and strengthening the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership. |
| Russia to Reinforce the Asian Vector |
Alexander Lukin
The BRICs have all chances to become the most influential of all the international associations that include Russia, as it is a center for harmonizing the interests of major non-Western centers of the multipolar world. An evolution of the BRIC structure into an alternative to the G8 would meet Russian interests. |
| A Not-So-Great Depression |
Vladislav Inozemtsev
A majority of economic institutions in the world today are in a sort of stupor after the powerful blow the crisis delivered in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. But this does not imply that the post-crisis rebound will not be as surprising as the crisis. |
| The Global Crisis, Law and Human Rights |
Valery Zorkin
The crisis has exposed the ineffectiveness of the classic liberal doctrine of law, which provides groundwork for the idea that social rights are not the rights in the strict sense of the word, while a welfare policy can be viewed as the assistance the states provides to the poor at the expense of the rich, or as charity based on political expediency. |
| Power and Parties in Post-Soviet Russia |
Vladimir Shveitser
Reviewing possible scenarios of response by the “party of power” to spontaneous discontent of the population during acute stages of the economic crisis, one cannot rule out a possible split of United Russia and Just Russia into smaller parties, which the authorities may have failed to foresee. |
| Dynamics of a Social Contract |
Alexander Auzan
The formula of Putin’s social contract suggesting “stability for political freedoms” that has been observed for the past five years can scarcely be renewed. A new hypothetical formula – “a just order in exchange for taxes and civil involvement” – may considerably increase the likelihood of an institutional modernization. |
| Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics |
Dmitry Badovsky
In the political sense, the country, led by the incumbent authorities to the victory over the crisis, will be preparing for relatively quiet elections. It is important that the very issue of the main candidate to the presidential post in 2012 will be addressed outside the framework of the crisis. |
| The New Liberalism: A Scenario with Variations |
Dmitry Furman
A liberal scenario is fairly realistic, yet it is not the one that will help Russia resolve its main task of the day – the transition to democracy. Transition is a huge task for society. The president’s liberal aspirations and steps can facilitate the resolution of this task in the future, but can do nothing more than that. |
| Crisis as a Catalyst |
Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief
The global economic crisis remains the focus of everyone’s attention, but the panic of late last year has given way to a sober analysis. The world has not been turned upside down and the problems caused by the crisis have only become catalysts of processes that had begun to take shape long before the autumn of 2008. |
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