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25 september 2016
The Inevitable, Weird World
The claim about an irreversible crisis of the liberal world order is a very convenient position for those who would like to simplify not only the overall picture, but also the challenges to the Russian foreign policy. Russia should learn to see not only problems in globalization, but also new opportunities for itself.
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25 september 2016
Make Something Great Again
The future and the past can meet sometimes—when the present is at an impasse, like it is today. For a quarter of a century now, we have been tirelessly building a new world order, but suddenly time seems to have rolled back, reviving the talk of a new Cold War, an ideological conflict, arms control, and nuclear confrontation.
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9 september 2016
Big 20 to Big Game: Power Politics Are Returning, Which Suits Russia
The G20 meeting in China was a milestone in international relations. Until only recently, world leaders were certain that the global economy and increased connectivity had helped stabilize and define the new world order. Now, however, the pendulum has turned back towards a classic game between the great powers, and Russia is again feeling right in its element.
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1 august 2016
How the World Looks From the Russian Perspective
In the future, a duumvirate may emerge in Central Asia, in which China will provide investment and resources, and Russia will contribute security and geopolitical stability.
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11 july 2016
US Policy And Globalization: Before And After the Global Financial Crisis
How has decay of the American Empire affected globalization? Does the apparent fragmentation of older, Bretton Woods era, more universal forms of global governance into more regional forms imply US relative decline?
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1 july 2016
Russia and China in Central Asia: The Great Win-Win Game
The SCO summit in Tashkent and Russian President's visit to China which took place in June have provided a good occasion to discuss the need for strengthening multilateral cooperation and ensuring regional security.
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1 july 2016
Without a “Common Space”: A New Agenda for Russia-EU Relations
It is unlikely that the current impasse in Russia-EU relations will be resolved within the next few years. It appeared long before the Ukrainian crisis. It is so deeply rooted that it will persist even if the con?ict in Donbass deescalates and the Minsk agreements are fully implemented. Both sides advocate fundamentally incompatible models for Russia-EU relations and for the economic and political order that should prevail in both “Wider Europe” and Eurasia.
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17 june 2016
The Korean Peninsula: Is a War Imminent?
The North Korean issue has become an irritant not only in relations between “continental” and “oceanic” powers, but also within each of the camps and specifically between the United States and South Korea, and Russia and China.
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17 june 2016
Russia’s Role in Asia-Pacific Security Architecture
If there is a key lesson to be drawn from the history of international relations, it is that, in extremis, political and security considerations almost inevitably triumph over economic considerations. Nothing is less certain.
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17 june 2016
The Peak Moment for China-Russia Ties
China-Russia ties are at their best and will remain stable for a long time. Meanwhile, the Sino-American relationship will increasingly run into trouble. As the American leaders will hardly give up their hegemonic policy, the strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow will remain a healthy check on Washington’s “unipolar folly.”
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17 june 2016
Russia’s Turn Eastward, China’s Turn Westward
A careful management of diverging interests and lingering conflicts of Russia and China in Central Asia, and expanding economic links as a gradual approach to economic integration could amount to something the EU can learn—and benefit—from.
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17 june 2016
Supply-Side Reform, Chinese Style
The proclaimed supply-side structural reform is not a carbon copy of Reagan’s policy. Rather, it is the continuation of the search for the Chinese way of development and efforts to adapt foreign teachings to Chinese conditions.
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17 june 2016
Countercyclical Policies
Russia might have a unique chance to take a qualitative leap as part of a new industrial revolution rather than catch up with the outgoing technological mode. Preparing human resources for such a leap may be the quintessence of Russia’s current countercyclical policy.
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17 june 2016
Caught in the Web of Archaic Policies
The Syrian conflict has provided an example of the profound virtualization of politics (and even its power component) and of creating stable pre-engineered actors exclusively for the communication space. The “moderate opposition” is the most noteworthy one.
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17 june 2016
Learning Lessons of Donald Cook
The Baltic Sea region is gradually becoming center stage in the clash of interests between Russia and NATO members. There is an obvious need for a document on mutual understanding between Russia and NATO to resolve dangerous incidents. The assessment of any actions of one party or another should be strictly legal.
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17 june 2016
What Makes A Great Power War Possible
Numerous international competitors see the use of force as a solution to their challenges. In relations between Russia and NATO, China and Japan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, power plays unfold with unpredictable repercussions.
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17 june 2016
Old Threats in the New Circumstances
Life is never dull. The results of the British referendum, hardly expected by anyone, came as a new wake-up call clearly signaling that there is not a place left on Earth where politics could be predictable. Now everyone is waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the presidential election in the United States where all think that Donald Trump simply cannot win, but are no longer certain.
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14 june 2016
Russia’s Turn Eastward, China’s Turn Westward: Cooperation and Conflict on the New Silk Road
The views and opinions expressed in this Paper are those of the author and do not represent the views of the Valdai Discussion Club, unless explicitly stated otherwise.
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14 june 2016
Will Russia integrate into the Western world, post-sanctions?
Recent overtures by top EU and German officials usher in hopes that relations between Moscow and the West could be on the verge of a turn for the better – but the real question is what direction Russia will take after sanctions are lifted and the tensions have abated.
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7 june 2016
Russian Foreign Policy Finding New Bearings
This year will see the 25th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s breakup and the emergence of new Russia on its ruins. Time is ripe for taking stocks and mapping a road into the future.
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1 june 2016
Does North Korea Have a Place in Russia’s “Turn to the East”?
What are the prospects for Russian-North Korean relations today?
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12 may 2016
U.S. Views of Moscow and Beijing’s Eurasian Ambitions
How Washington Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Eurasian Integration
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4 may 2016
Putin's Foreign Policy
The era of bipolar confrontation ended a long time ago. But the unipolar moment of U.S. dominance that began in 1991 is gone, too. A new, multipolar world has brought more uncertainty into international affairs.
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29 april 2016
The Iranian Deal: Opportunities and Obstacles for Russian-US Cooperation
On July 14, 2015, the United States, Russia, China, France, UK, Germany, the European Union and Iran concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the “Iran deal,” with the goal of ending the standoff over the Iranian nuclear program.
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19 april 2016
The Middle East: the main trends
The Valdai Discussion Club hosted the 5th meeting of the Valdai Middle East dialogue, «The Middle East: From Violence to Security.» The following is a summary of the discussions and conclusions reached by its participants.
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18 april 2016
Industrial cooperation: path to confluence of russian and chinese economies
The strategic partnership with China began in 1996 (just in time when this form of bilateral cooperation first became available), and it was considered by the leaders of Russia and China as a geopolitical rather than economic project.
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12 april 2016
Governance for a World Without World Government
G20 must complement its core composition with a consultative network that reaches out to other governments, business, civil society, and think tanks. Its aim should be to consult and cultivate, not command and control, so that others believe they have a genuine voice and are legitimate stakeholders.
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12 april 2016
Towards a Segmented World Order?
It could well be that the once stable, cooperative multilateral framework of the IMF, like many international institutions inspired and led by the advanced economies, has become afflicted by a democratic and growing call for voice and representation of other states and non-state actors.
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12 april 2016
On the Usefulness of Imagination
The hackneyed saying “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” is as relevant today as never before, but there is no stopping to the audacious flight of imagination. Popular as it is, extrapolation of current trends to future periods does not work as something always gets in the way, while attempts to draw a completely different picture look like imaginative writing. And still we have taken the risk.
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7 april 2016
Is There A Non-West for Russia to Lead?
Recently, Russian policymakers and strategists have articulated a vision of a vibrant non-Western world, one in which the United States and European leaders are increasingly marginal and where Russia plays a leading role.
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Taking a New Look at Nuclear Peace
(2713)
Sergey Karaganov -
Russia’s Allies and the Geopolitical Frontier in Eurasia
(1534)
Nikolai Silayev, Andrey Sushentsov -
Trump’s Foreign Policy Is ‘Buy American’ — Become An Ally By Becoming A Client
(1489)
Fyodor Lukyanov -
Bridging the Dividing Lines in Greater Eurasia
(1342)
Tony van der Togt -
Russia’s Strategic Calculus: Threat Perceptions and Military Doctrine
(1255)
Dmitry Gorenburg
Russia’s Victory, new Concert of Nations
Russia was resolved and would win, which it actually did by the beginning of 2016. Threats to tear its economy to tatters and organize regime change either through asphyxiating sanctions, organizing “a conspiracy of oligarchs” or popular discontent have been forgotten.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Is ‘Buy American’ — Become An Ally By Becoming A Client
The rest, including political initiatives and even military force, seem for Trump to serve only as means to achieve commercial ends.
The West’s Decadent Foreign Policy
The West is increasingly reluctant to allow its vision of civil liberties and human rights to shape foreign policy, often owing to the potential commercial costs. Such foreign-policy decadence threatens to undermine the West's claim to be a community of values – and the EU's claim to be more than a glorified customs union.
Russian-Chinese Exercises in the Baltic As an Element of a Changing World
On July 20th, the five day naval exercises between China and Russia were officially kicked off in the Baltic Sea. It seems that this has made restless the Western media. Even if it does not mean that "the specter of communism is wandering around Europe," at least one sentence is added: "This is another manifestation of the new authoritarian coalition."
A Tranquilizer With a Scent of Gunpowder. The Balance between Russian and NATO Forces in Eastern Europe after 2014
The serious decline in Russia’s relations with the West has breathed a new life into NATO, which returned to its traditional role, the containment of Russia.
A Cyber Revolt in the Making
Regular news reports on cyberattacks, information leaks, hacking and their political consequences have been dominating the headlines. Cyberspace turned out to be an efficient means to bring people together and to exert their will, which governments have to reckon with.
Turkey and Russia, Erdogan and Putin
By the summer of 2016, it had become relatively commonplace in Western policy circles to wonder if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was following in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and, if so, how far down that path he would take Turkey.
The Need to Massage Egos: Status Politics as a Crucial Element of US-Russia Relations
Despite multiple official declarations of non-adversarial intentions issued by the United States and Russia over the past quarter-century, both sides have been unable to avoid repeated bouts of conflict escalation.