Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 4

2008 October/December

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Contents

Two Crises on the Way to Reshaping the World

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

The Flipside of September 11, 2001

Vladimir Ovchinsky

Sergey K. Dubinin

From the Megaphone to the Microphone?

From a Post-Soviet to a Russian Foreign Policy

Alexander V. Lukin

Paradigm Change in Russian Foreign Policy

Alexander Aksenyonok

Traveling in Different Boats

Ivan A. Safranchuk

Multipolar Hegemony

Alexander V. Lomanov

The Caucasian War and Public Interest

Alexander Buzgalin, Andrey Kolganov

The Logic of South Ossetia Conflict

The End of Multi-Vector Policies

Regional Conflicts Reloaded

Sergey M. Markedonov

A New Chance for Leadership

David Erkomaishvili

A Nation-State or a State-Nation?

Alexei I. Miller

The Limits of Rational Choice

Timofei V. Bordachev

The World Crisis – A Time for Creation

Sergei A. Karaganov

Articles

Two Crises on the Way to Reshaping the World

Two crises have occurred one after the other in the past few months that have had a significant impact on Russian foreign policy. The Russian-Georgian war in August and the upheavals on global financial markets in September and October are not related. Yet both events, each in its own way, have contributed to the formulation by Russia of its national interests. One can say that the two crises have set a conceptual framework of interests, defining a vector for the indispensable and boundaries for the possible.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

The Flipside of September 11, 2001

The reality that developed after September 11, 2001 and August 8, 2008 is such that the “catches” of self-defense, self-determination and peacekeeping in ambiguous UN documents can be used to justify war against sovereign states.

Vladimir Ovchinsky

The time has come to discuss methods of international regulation. From an objective point of view, the United States, in crisis conditions, should not be interested in stepping up military-political competition in the world arena, but in productive cooperation, including with Russia.

Sergey K. Dubinin

From the Megaphone to the Microphone?

If we are to deal sensibly with each other, we need predictability; we need an accurate understanding of each other’s interests and intentions; and we need the ability to communicate rationally. These are the elements which need to be restored.

From a Post-Soviet to a Russian Foreign Policy

The post-Soviet foreign policy paradigm rested on the exclusive role of interaction with the West. A foreign policy course that meets Russia’s national interests in earnest could become an alternative to the post-Soviet approach. Its goal might be a return of foreign policy attractiveness to Russia – something that is known as ‘soft power’ today.

Alexander V. Lukin

Paradigm Change in Russian Foreign Policy

The present global interdependence makes any conflict take quite new, hitherto unknown shapes; so it is simply impossible to predict how events will develop if one simulates them on the basis of the experience of the “first” Cold War.

Alexander Aksenyonok

Traveling in Different Boats

Relations between Russia and the United States are acquiring a new quality. Moscow and Washington can cooperate on certain individual issues, but strategically they are now on their own – certainly not in the same boat.

Ivan A. Safranchuk

Multipolar Hegemony

If the hypothetical Sino-American alliance expands beyond the economic framework and takes on a political dimension, this may motivate Europe to expand the geopolitical base by forging a union with Russia.

Alexander V. Lomanov

The Caucasian War and Public Interest

The West will see that the demonization of Russia as a country – as distinct from criticizing its rulers – is very harmful not only for the people of Russia but also for the West, which is witnessing a further growth of the already influential right-wing conservative political forces.

Alexander Buzgalin, Andrey Kolganov

The Logic of South Ossetia Conflict

By winning this victory, Russia tapped the limit of capabilities of its armed forces. We run the risk of sliding into a more or less overt standoff, for which Russia does not have the resources, ideology or geopolitical opportunities right now.

The End of Multi-Vector Policies

The territory of the former Soviet Union has completely lost its former contours and has turned into a field for an open struggle involving major players. The inter-state relations slide into total chaos and there are no clear rules of conduct.

Regional Conflicts Reloaded

The territory of the former Soviet Union changed on August 26, 2008 with the creation of a precedent in redrawing the borders of former Soviet republics. The groundwork of the post-Soviet world, functional since 1991, has collapsed.

Sergey M. Markedonov

A New Chance for Leadership

Some noticeable changes have taken place recently in Russia’s policy of promoting its interests in the territory of the former Soviet Union. But this is only a small part of a bigger policy required to form friendly lobbies in the territory of the former Soviet Union. However, the social aspect of this policy, which is vital for success, is nowhere in sight yet.

David Erkomaishvili

A Nation-State or a State-Nation?

Nobody knows what may happen if the Ukrainian policy continues developing along the nation-state course. For the more than eight million people who consider themselves to be Russians, the important thing is not the change to Ukrainian identity, but the loss of living comfortably in case they maintain their Russian identity.

Alexei I. Miller

The Limits of Rational Choice

History is really only made by big deals. It is only a “big deal” – energy in exchange for full-scale common institutions – that can make relations between Russia and Europe stable for a long time.

Timofei V. Bordachev

The World Crisis – A Time for Creation

The matter at hand is not just a deep financial and economic crisis. This is an overall crisis of the entire system of global governance; a crisis of ideas on which global development was based; and a crisis of international institutions.

Sergei A. Karaganov