Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 4

2010 October/December

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Contents

On the Verge of Change Again

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Mirror of the Past

Nineteen Eighty-Five

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The Russian Federation Before and After the Soviet Union

In Quest of New Strategies

Containment Must Be Overcome

Mikhail Troitsky

From Parity to Reasonable Sufficiency

Dmitry V. Suslov

Punching Above One’s Weight

The Asian Vector

Going East: Russia’s Asia-Pacific Strategy

Turbulent Changes

Politicized Climate

Nothing New on the Climate Front?

Igor A. Istomin

What Is Political Ecology?

Tatiana A. Romanova

Hot North

Arctic Square of Opportunities

Alexander Oreshenkov

Reaching Out For Compatriots

Russia’s Soft Power Potential

Georgy Filimonov

Russians Abroad: A Case of Central Asia

Articles

On the Verge of Change Again

Ten years ago, when the 1990s were coming to an end, many politicians were making plans for the future, trying to predict what the world would be like in 10 years.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Nineteen Eighty-Five

The Soviet Union, contrary to many expectations, survived the year 1984 – one of the last years of the industrial age. But it proved helpless in the new conditions, when the development of post-industrial countries demanded greater flexibility and innovation from the rest of the world. As for Russia, over the years since the end of the Soviet era, it has grown, it looks, richer somewhat, but its basic features have remained Soviet all along.

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The Russian Federation Before and After the Soviet Union

The backbone of the Soviet economy was built during the period of industrialization before 1940, and in the post-war period from 1945-1960.Then the system failed after reaching its peak of growth in the 1970s. The decline dragged on until 1998. Russians paid a high price in the 1940s and the 1950s for building the foundation of a national industry, and civil freedoms in the 1990s. It is only now that the new Russia has a truly excellent opportunity to develop into a strong and prosperous country.

Containment Must Be Overcome

Containment, especially when based on nuclear deterrence, was the main link in the vicious circle that emerged in Russian-U.S. relations after World War II. The situation has changed dramatically since then, but people’s mindsets have not – you can’t trust the one you seek to deter. The lack of mutual trust makes it highly difficult to resolve conflicts.

Mikhail Troitsky

From Parity to Reasonable Sufficiency

Rethinking the nuclear arms policy implies making it independent – that is, relieving it of the task of maintaining parity with the United States and subordinating it to the interests of the military security and international political influence of Russia. Russia’s military security can be effectively and reliably ensured by a much smaller arsenal of strategic nuclear forces than it has now, even considering the possible need to overcome the U.S. missile defense system in the future.

Dmitry V. Suslov

Punching Above One’s Weight

The conservative ideologists have come to the ultimate conclusion that it does not make sense to rely on the European Union as a protector of Britain’s national interests in the international scene and that its own independent capabilities should be built up. In the new European context London’s approach might become a model to follow for other major EU states.

Going East: Russia’s Asia-Pacific Strategy

The 21st-century imperatives offer a new view of Russia as a Euro-Pacific country, not merely European or Eurasian. This implies Moscow has to come up with strategic initiatives on the continental scale, using the benefits of the European integration experience. These should be economic initiatives in the first place.

Turbulent Changes

It will be difficult to see stronger ties between Japan and Russia in the short term; however, it is important to strengthen these ties in the long term. Japan needs Russia as an energy supplier and for investment, while Russia needs Japanese assistance in its economic reform for sustainable development. The China factor will push Tokyo and Moscow towards strategic dialogue.

Nothing New on the Climate Front?

A stronger climate policy is an integral part of the national agenda the way Russia’s leadership has formulated it. It can prompt measures to technically upgrade the economy and to shift to more efficient use of the available resources. That the Russian leadership’s interest in the climate issues has been growing is seen in the approval in December 2009 of the Climate Doctrine.

Igor A. Istomin

What Is Political Ecology?

Political ecology is an extremely interesting and promising area of research – both theoretical and applied. However, further probes are required, that would make it possible to move on from the accumulation of empirical data to the required level of theorizing, and also to devise a comprehensive strategy for the state to follow in practice. Delays in this field would keep Russia in a second-rate position in the world for decades to come.

Tatiana A. Romanova

Arctic Square of Opportunities

The treaty concerning maritime delimitation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean, which Russia and Norway signed in September 2010, is regarded by the officialdom as a great diplomatic success. However, the document disregards a whole range of vital legal aspects, which may be detrimental to the operation of Russian state companies in the region, including possible weighty losses due to discrepancies in tax treatment.

Alexander Oreshenkov

Russia’s Soft Power Potential

It goes without saying that the “game” being played in the post-Soviet space remains a priority for the Russian Federation in building up its international influence and foreign policy strategy in general. Creation of Russian soft power resources through consolidation and organization of the Russian diasporas is an indispensable condition for effective work on this foreign-policy track.

Georgy Filimonov

Russians Abroad: A Case of Central Asia

In assessing Russia’s policy towards Russians living abroad, the respondents think that Russia is not doing enough. Such an opinion was voiced by every second individual polled in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. A quarter of the Russian communities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan feel no support from Russia.