Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 4

2011 October/December

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Contents

Twenty Years in Absence of the Soviet Union

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Russia’s Strengths and Weaknesses

The Dialectics of Rise and Decline

Joseph S. Nye Jr

What Diplomacy Does Russia Need in the 21st Century?

Hard Power and the Re-Industrialization of Russia

Nikolay Spasskiy

Russia’s Nuclear Quest Comes Full Circle

Balance and Imbalance

“Coercion to Partnership” and the Flaws of an Unbalanced World

Alexei Bogaturov

From the Cold War to Hot Finances

Alessandro Politi

The Remaking of the Industrial World

Vladislav Inozemtsev

In the Post-Bipolar World

Charles Kupchan

The Cold War and the Post-Cold War World

The United Nations and the United States

Transformation of Democracy

A Lesson Half-Learned

Viatcheslav Morozov

Democracy After the Collapse

Piotr Dutkiewicz

A Challenge from the Past

Alexei I. Miller

Europe and Beyond

Hotel Europe: Guests and Permanent Partners

Sergei A. Karaganov, Horst Teltschik, Andrzej Olechowski

A Europe Without the European Union?

From the End of the Cold War into a New Era of Relations

Simon Tay, Aaron Choo

Articles

Twenty Years in Absence of the Soviet Union

It is not our practice to publish special issues devoted to one topic. This time, however, we have made an exception.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

The Dialectics of Rise and Decline

In a world of new transnational challenges created by non-state actors the United States and Russia have much to gain from working together to cope with these new challenges. In short, the U.S. has more to gain from partnership with a strong reformed Russia rather than a weak declining Russia.

Joseph S. Nye Jr

What Diplomacy Does Russia Need in the 21st Century?

Russia has at least one tactical advantage over the other leading players. We are at the beginning of a new political cycle, and therefore have the advantage of medium-term planning – at least for six years ahead. So why shouldn’t Russia try to spearhead the looming intellectual breakthrough?

Hard Power and the Re-Industrialization of Russia

Since the time of Kievan Rus, Russia has been a key element of the world order through a multitude of circumstances. Therefore, in strengthening Russia we will strengthen the entire world order and render it more durable. In the overall scheme of things, this step will meet the real strategic interests of all responsible members of the international community, including the EU, the U.S., China and India.

Nikolay Spasskiy

Russia’s Nuclear Quest Comes Full Circle

Russia should rethink what it has inherited from the Soviet Union in nuclear matters, the role of nuclear weapons, and their relevance in the future. Furthermore, Russia should consider how it can best use to its own advantage the opportunities offered by the nuclear non-proliferation regime, and how this regime can be modified to meet the realities of the new century.

“Coercion to Partnership” and the Flaws of an Unbalanced World

In the post-nuclear age, or rather beginning with NATO’s attack on Yugoslavia, military campaigns have actually turned into international political campaigns. The new strategic logic aims not to destroy an enemy state but to overpower it with a view to subordinating it to the victor’s interests politically and economically.

Alexei Bogaturov

From the Cold War to Hot Finances

Bush remembers the tragedy of Charles V of Habsburg and Philip II of Spain who strove to keep one world under one sensible hegemony and, despite defeating major adversaries, failed over the stubborn resistance of rebels and heretics then in Holland and yesterday in Iraq – debt and imperial overstretching as predicted by Paul Kennedy.

Alessandro Politi

The Remaking of the Industrial World

Illusory hopes that new technological possibilities will help create unlimited wealth have never come true. No invention can ensure a life of ease for decades. Of course, the world has changed – but, as the developments of recent years have shown, not to an extent that the established economic patterns should be discarded as worthless. The 21st-century world is a renewed yet still industrial world.

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The West and the rising rest are poised to compete over principles, status, and geopolitical interests as the shift in global power quickens. The challenge for the West and the rest alike is to forge a new and pluralistic order – one that preserves stability and a rules-based international system amid the multiple versions of modernity that will populate the next world.

Charles Kupchan

The Cold War and the Post-Cold War World

Rather than a future in which Chinese hegemony will replace that of the United States, we seem to be rapidly entering a world in which no country will exercise anything resembling true world leadership. This bears a sinister resemblance to the 1920s, when the United States replaced Britain as the world’s leading economic power, but was wholly unwilling to shoulder additional burdens of global leadership.

The United Nations and the United States

What the UN cannot do is to manufacture and fabricate international consensus where none exists. It cannot be the center for harmonizing national interests – and mediating or reconciling them into the international interest – when the divisions are too deep to be papered over by diplomacy, when the disputes are too intractable to be resolved around the negotiating table.

A Lesson Half-Learned

The bankruptcy of transitology does not rule out the fact that modern liberal democracy is a product of European civilization and, consequently, that it is based on the historical and intellectual experience of the Enlightenment and subsequent eras. This concrete and essential component of the notion of democracy remains the last line in democracy’s defense against relativism – it allows us to distinguish genuine democracy from all kinds of fakes.

Viatcheslav Morozov

Democracy After the Collapse

By increasingly becoming a mere servant of the economic-cum-political ruling group, democracy is losing its original appeal and its broader, previously unquestionable, social support. As a consequence, the contemporary market system works by de-politicizing the economy, thus making it less socially accountable and responsive.

Piotr Dutkiewicz

A Challenge from the Past

The intensity of “historical wars in Europe” has decreased since 2009, but the process could still be reversed. It is still very likely that history will be used as a tool for political disputes. Reverting to extremely aggressive, conflict-prone and destructive methods of historical policy is still a realistic threat.

Alexei I. Miller

Hotel Europe: Guests and Permanent Partners

We should not wait till the next crisis makes all the states it will affect in North America, the European Union and the rest of Europe realize that everybody is interested in close and friendly cooperation from Vancouver to Vladivostok. The way along this track has long been determined and responsible politicians should embark upon it.

Sergei A. Karaganov, Horst Teltschik, Andrzej Olechowski

A Europe Without the European Union?

The EU’s biggest problem today is the loss of the European idea and the vagueness of European self-identity. Despite the ongoing process of enlargement, EU leaders have been unable to persuasively answer the question of what it means to be a European today.

From the End of the Cold War into a New Era of Relations

Given the crisis in the U.S. and the European Union, the continued health of Asia and emerging markets, and Russia’s effort to look East, it is not unimaginable that twenty years hence the world will see the rise of Russia and the beginning of an Asia-Pacific century, potentially impacting Russia, ASEAN and their mutual relations.

Simon Tay, Aaron Choo