Geopolitics in Space and Time

Worse Than During the Cold War

Neither Ukraine nor Syria has eased psychological tension so far. The United States and partly Russia do not think they have reached the dangerous point. Apparently they still need a bigger crisis to finally settle their issues.

Russia’s Foreign Policy in a Historical Perspective

The principle stated by George Orwell that all are equal but some are more equal than others seems to have been adopted at the international level. This is vividly borne out by the outcome of American interference in the Middle East countries and elsewhere. Russia will continue to espouse the principles of law and justice in international affairs.

Comment of the Year: The Middle East – Syria

It must be stated right from the outset that the outgoing year has failed to bring this long-suffering region either any perceptible change for the better or a consummation of aspirations that provided a powerful impetus to the million-strong protests in the Arab world seven years ago.

Insights and Recommendations

This compilation is meant as a sampling of Graham’s views. The quotes below are divided into categories similar to those in Russia Matters’ news and analysis digests, reflecting the most pertinent topic areas for U.S.-Russian relations broadly and for drivers of the two countries’ policies toward one another.

From Last to First?

As it aspires to join the elite world club of equal sovereigns, Russia cannot but notice an important fact that no such club actually exists. The simple reason is that the club’s membership is conditioned on mutual transparency and permeability of sovereignties and correlation of sovereign actions with the values understood as the red lines in what one says and does.

Putin's Plan for Syria

Russia realizes that with the war waning and reconstruction looming, others will begin to step forward in Syria, including China, Europe, and Japan. Moscow will seek to partner with them to secure a piece of the lucrative reconstruction effort.

Moscow’s leverage in Syria is strong, but limited

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared “a complete victory” over the Islamic State on both banks of the Euphrates River in Syria.

Muqtada al-Sadr: A Way into the Arab World?

Muqtada al-Sadr is a descendent of the religious Sadr dynasty, a prominent family of Shiite intellectuals. He is one of a small number of politicians who possess significant influence in modern Iraq and who are capable of inspiring hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets.

By the Rivers of Babylon

The time when Russia could contemplate an exit strategy seems to have passed. It would be virtually impossible now to guarantee a negotiated settlement in Syria or at least a lasting truce without Russia’s substantial military presence in that country.

Referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan: Unity and Cohesion of the People

On September 25, 2017, a referendum on independence was held in Iraqi Kurdistan, which was condemned by the governments of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. According to the Iraqi Kurdistan Electoral Commission, more than 90 percent (2.86 million out of 3.31 million) of the referendum participants voted for independence.

Great Power Interventions and the Future of Responsibility to Protect

It may often seem that a whole epoch has passed since the Kosovo Commission’s oft-cited conclusion that the NATO intervention into Yugoslavia in 1999 was “illegal, but legitimate”.

Russia–US Relations and the Future of Syria

The greatest analytical challenge in trying to understand the Syrian civil wars overcoming the propensity to see the world as it was and not as it is. It is tempting to look at Syria on a map and imagine that one day soon it could be put back together – if only a resolution could be found during diplomatic meetings in Astana or Istanbul.

Arab Uncertainty after the ‘Spring’

After six years of rapid and successive developments that have engulfed Arab countries, they could not reach a safe path towards the future.

We Are All From Europe

“I am not afraid,” chanted the crowd that took to the streets in Barcelona after a van was driven into pedestrians on the Las Ramblas promenade, killing at least 14 people and injuring some 130 others. It was the most dignified and appropriate possible response to a terrorist attack, a firm demonstration of unity that transcended internal divisions.

Media and Pundits Play a Special Role in Stopping Terror

Once again, a European city was hit by a terrorist attack. La Rambla of Barcelona, ??a tourist, commercial and entertainment center of the city, suffered a deadly assault.

Daesh Uses the ‘Power of Its Ideology’ to Spread Terror

The terrorist attacks in Spain have shown that ISIS is able to spread through the power of its ideology.

Why the Terrorist Attack in Spain Will Not Be the Last

Over the past 24 hours two terrorist attacks happened in Spain.

Afghanistan: Stabilization Is Far Away

The military and political situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. The daily terrorist attacks, carried out by the Taliban movement and other radical groups, are aimed not only against government and military facilities, but also against the civilians.

The Lessons of Islamic State

The defeat of Islamic State is apparent. What next, then? Islamic extremism will come full circle. Having failed to preserve Islamic State, the extremists will focus on punishing their “offenders” by returning to the methods previously employed by al-Qaeda.

AQIS & ISIS approaches in India

Since its inception back in 2014, the terrorist group known as “al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent,” or AQIS for short, has been attempting to generate a strong support base in India. However, it has so far not been able to manage a significant foothold amongst the Muslim population in the country.

Trump’s Visit to France Marks Reversal in Trump’s ‘Isolation’

French President Emmanuel Macron will not attempt to pressure US President Donald Trump into any difficult situation, as his goal is to make the best of a difficult situation.

First Putin-Trump Meeting: The Exploration of a Compartmentalised Relationship

After very anticipated first Russian and US presidents' meeting both sides used this opportunity to underline the importance of Moscow-Washington relationship and direct contacts between two presidents, in particular.

Managing Geo-Political Change: Attending to the Architecture

President Trump reportedly likes to delegate authority. He also likes to make his ‘team leaders’ vie with each other, competitively. It has worked well for him in his real-estate business, Trump often says...

Terrorist Attacks in Tehran: Iran Ceases to Be the Most Stable Country in the Middle East

Terrorist attacks in the Iranian parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini mausoleum took place as importance and prestige of the country in the international arena was growing, Valdai club expert Elena Dunaeva says.

Back to Order?

The Syrian experience may prove to be a model for a new approach to the organization of the army. In the Middle East, this institution continues to play not only a military but also a political role as a state-forming element of the political system.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia: The Final Breakup or Will America Help?

On June 5, 2017, six Arab countries - Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia - announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar.

The Need to Massage Egos: Status Politics as a Crucial Element of US-Russia Relations

Despite multiple official declarations of non-adversarial intentions issued by the United States and Russia over the past quarter-century, both sides have been unable to avoid repeated bouts of conflict escalation.

Iran voted Rouhani again – now what? The $350-billion question for Trump

For a country labelled a theocracy, Iran certainly knows how to throw a presidential election. One more cynical than I may even go so far as to posit that Iran has mastered the art of democracy, right down to the posters and caps.

Could Trump have passed sensitive information to Russia?

On Monday, May 15, many media outlets in the U.S. strong criticized President Donald Trump. This time he was accused of passing confidential information to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, relating to the fight against Islamic State. The accusers themselves, however, admit that Trump has not violated any American laws.