Geopolitics in Space and Time

Symmetric versus Asymmetric Rule

War with Russia?

Stephen F. Cohen ‘s book War with Russia? is controversial and debatable. Any of the author’s arguments should create applause by his supporters and fierce opposition from his critics as they could be the starting point for a much-needed debate.

“Long Peace” and Nuclear Weapons

It is not nuclear weapons that help maintain stability; rather, a gradual decay of the “long peace” will raise the need for the transformation of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons already act not so much as a guarantee against war as a guarantee that your enemy will not use them against you?like chemical weapons in World War II.

The Nature of the Modern Crisis in U.S.-Russia Relations

The rearmament program, now underway in the U.S., may lead to a new round of “militarization of international relations” and a new arms race between Russia, the United States, and probably China at a time when the strategic arms limitation regime is crumbling.

Russian-U.S. Relations: Torn between the Practical and Ideational Agendas

Hypothetically, Russia and the U.S. may stop escalating their war of ideas if their material interests do not cross. This would be possible if they divide their zones of influence and respect them.

The Soviet Union and the Iranian Revolution

Islamism. Political Islam. Islamic fundamentalism. The mass media and academic studies are literally brimming with these terms. However, what we see today as a natural component of international relations, in the 1970s-1980s was an unheard-of and inconceivable phenomenon in world politics.

Revisionism of Powers in the Changing Historical Context

Russia’s relations with the U.S. and its allies are unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future. This solves the problem of uncertain intentions?the most important methodological question in the international relations theory. The current intentions of the American bloc with regard to Russia, China and Iran are absolutely clear, and this creates unprecedented certainty in world politics.

A Rapidly Changing Reality

The world is not in disarray, it is in transition. As wealth and power move to the South and the East again after a couple of centuries, the validity of some normative assumptions and the efficacy of incumbent institutions that manage the world order is being severely tested.

How to Win a Cold War

It is about time to draft a truly new foreign policy concept as the previous narrative has exhausted itself, being more of a ritual than a guide to action. Russia needs “strategic patience” as never before.

Chances for a New “Peace of Westphalia”?

The situation which we now observe in the world, as far as the major political players are concerned, will probably continue for an unusually long time. Familiar protagonists-the current leaders-are set to retain their leading roles on the world stage: Putin for another 6 years, Merkel for nearly four more years, Macron for even longer, President Xi as long as he wishes to stay...

Defying Stereotypes

The West’s Unilateral Cold War

The problem between Russia and the West is really a problem among Westerners themselves. If there is a new cold war, it is only because established elites have not come to terms with reality: the balance of military, political, economic, and moral power has shifted too far away from the West to be reversed.

Back to Balance. New Weapons As Effective Deterrence

Many bad things have been said about nuclear weapons in the decades since they first came into existence. Indeed, in the middle of the 20th century the human race developed a means of confrontation with the potential to destroy the entire world were it used on a large scale.

Worse Than During the Cold War

Neither Ukraine nor Syria has eased psychological tension so far. The United States and partly Russia do not think they have reached the dangerous point. Apparently they still need a bigger crisis to finally settle their issues.

Collapse of the World Order?

Moscow appears to be unprepared for polycentrism as it has not yet grasped its basic rule, which was well known to Russian chancellors of the 19th century: one should make compromises on individual issues in order to have closer relations with other centers of power than they have among themselves.

A New Epoch of Confrontation

Many analysts in Moscow argue that the political and propaganda pressure being exerted by the West on Russia is the result of Russia’s growth. But this Western pressure is more of a counterattack against Russia than a direct attack intended to prevent a further weakening of the West’s positions and possibly win them back. This counterattack is an important constituent feature of a “New Epoch of Confrontation.”

Trump’s defense strategy is perfect for Russia

Trump's strategy pushes confrontation with Russia, and Moscow is pleased.

Russia's Changing Relations with the West: Prospects for a New Hybrid System

At the end of 2016, both the political and expert communities in Russia appeared to be very pessimistic about the future of the world order in general, and the about the future of the West in particular.

Fuzzy Alliances, Flexible Relations

Relations between Russia and the West have reached their lowest point since the Cold War. Unfortunately we cannot be sure that they won’t deteriorate even further. It is time to start to mend ties, but the only consensus view shared by both sides is that business as usual is not an option.

Insights and Recommendations

This compilation is meant as a sampling of Graham’s views. The quotes below are divided into categories similar to those in Russia Matters’ news and analysis digests, reflecting the most pertinent topic areas for U.S.-Russian relations broadly and for drivers of the two countries’ policies toward one another.

Russia and the U.S.: The Way Forward

Overcoming the legacy of the Cold War, during which several generations grew up, proved much more difficult than was expected. That Russian-U.S. relations have been thrown far back does not meet anyone’s interests, but finding a way out of this impasse will take time, goodwill and breakthrough ideas.

Russia and the West: A New Cold War?

Russia’s conflictual relationship with the West has been described as a Cold War-like confrontation. In reality, these powers are engaged in an asymmetric rivalry, not a Cold War.

The Soviet Roots of Meddling in U.S. Politics

The release on January 6 of an unclassified version of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s report describing efforts by Russian security services to influence last year’s U.S. presidential campaign in favor of Donald Trump evoked a sense of deja vu.

How U.S.-Russia Diplomacy Went Heavy Metal

In the new Cold War, pragmatic dialogue is out. Quoting Five Finger Death Punch is in.

A Cold War: A Forecast for Tomorrow

Nuclear deterrence is the only reason why the world did not plunge into a nuclear conflict during the Cold War and is not sliding down that path now as we are living through a new Cold War which is even worse than the previous one.

The Arctic In An Age Of Geopolitical Change: Assessment And Recommendations

Arctic remains one of the world’s last great, pristine and undeveloped areas. Equivalent to one-sixth of the world’s landmass, the region is home to just 4 million people. The region is rich in both renewable and non-renewable resources.

From Strategic to Tactical Stability

The new definition of stability, which must be maintained simultaneously at several tactical levels of the arms race in order to achieve the common strategic goal of preventing war, could serve as a new conceptual rationale for arms control.

In the Moonlight

There is an increasingly strong feeling of countdown—towards even more drastic changes. The world is moving somewhere along the sparkling moonlit path.

Trump’s foreign policy threatens Cold War — not just with Russia

The phrase “Cold War” has become a cliche with little meaning. It was used to label every case of the Russia-US confrontation since the 1990s, and it finally became very common in the 2000s. Although purists were always against using this term without a proper connotation, it was already impossible to stop it.