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6 june 2017
USA and NATO: Who Needs Who?
Speaking about the U.S.–NATO relations, one must take into account that no political initiatives can fundamentally change their basis, namely, ensuring security of European states. However, Washington and its allies in the Alliance may disagree on the kinds of threats and the extent of security measures needed.
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5 june 2017
Turkey and Russia, Erdogan and Putin
By the summer of 2016, it had become relatively commonplace in Western policy circles to wonder if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was following in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and, if so, how far down that path he would take Turkey.
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5 june 2017
The Need to Massage Egos: Status Politics as a Crucial Element of US-Russia Relations
Despite multiple official declarations of non-adversarial intentions issued by the United States and Russia over the past quarter-century, both sides have been unable to avoid repeated bouts of conflict escalation.
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18 may 2017
Russia’s Allies and the Geopolitical Frontier in Eurasia
The risk of Russia’s involvement in low-intensity military conflicts has been growing since the early 2000s. Instability along many stretches of the border has forced Moscow to increase its military presence in the neighboring areas.
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18 may 2017
Russia’s Strategic Calculus: Threat Perceptions and Military Doctrine
Russian foreign policy is driven by the political elites’ search for a new basis for national self-esteem after the collapse of the Soviet Union disrupted old Soviet identities.
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11 april 2017
Into the Unknown: U.S.-Russian Relations Unhinged
If the larger picture defies prediction, the immediate future is scarcely more transparent. In the U.S. case, the known unknowns are numerous. They begin with the question of how much deck furniture Trump is willing to overturn in order to pursue an “America First” strategy.
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11 april 2017
Russia, China and ‘Balance of Dependence’ in Greater Eurasia
The success of a region-building project is largely contingent on constructing a ‘balance of dependence’. The Greater Europe initiative inevitably failed as the attempt to ingrate almost exclusively with Europe deprived Russia of the required bargaining power to negotiate adequate inclusion.
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22 february 2017
Mutual Assured Deterrence
The degradation of governance within the international system is a hot topic nowadays – and for good reason. The underpinnings of the rules-based world order are crumbling, and basic norms of international behavior and decency are in decay. By almost any definition, we seem to be living in a dangerous – even prewar – type of world.
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13 february 2017
Between Empire and Nation State
Between the nation and the empire there lies the term ‘civilization.’ Russia will be doomed to build its identity on the archetypes of civilizational loneliness (an imperial feeling) as there is no system to build itself into to obtain guarantees of further existence.
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13 february 2017
The Birth of a Greater Eurasia
While only recently the West’s dominance looked absolute, now the roles of the teacher and the student, the leader and the straggler are no longer definitely assigned. Сompetition in interpreting reality, defining meanings, and translating values will increasingly grow.
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13 february 2017
Political Cyberwar on the Doorstep
The leaders of major cyber powers have declared an intent to restrict their actions in virtual space. This new weapon looks too lucrative indeed. Major crises will be unavoidable until the main players realize that mutual restrictions and the rules of the game are crucial.
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13 february 2017
A Hunt for “Free Agents”
A “free agent” in the present world may be any influential actor in international processes. To effectively use the “free agent” concept, it is necessary to renounce zero-sum thinking where the West’s gain is necessarily perceived as Russia’s loss, and vice versa.
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13 february 2017
2016 – A Victory of Conservative Realism
We will live in a highly competitive and increasingly unpredictable world. Russia should start economic growth and development in order not to fall behind the new technological revolution again. Economic weakness provokes external pressure.
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17 january 2017
Lukashenko’s “Drift To The West”: Why Moscow Should Not Be Worried
Belarus’ traditional structural dependence on Russia is increasing, and Minsk’s freedom of maneuver continues to shrink.
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23 november 2016
Russia’s Use of Military Force as a Foreign Policy Tool IS THERE A LOGIC?
Russia has used its military beyond its borders with unprecedented frequency in the period since the invasion of Crimea in February 2014.
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18 november 2016
Like Obama, Trump Is Unlikely to Lead as the World’s Policeman
Obama started dismantling America’s global obligations. Trump is likely to take that a step further.
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25 september 2016
Missiles in Europe: Back to the Future?
New disarmament talks are hardly necessary. With the West continuing to dominate the information space, such talks would only be used for inciting greater mistrust and militarizing mentality in Europe. But there is the need for military-to-military dialogue.
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25 september 2016
To Keep Your Balance, Keep Moving
Neither crises nor criticism mean that the EU will fall apart. It will maintain its stability even though it will be engaged not even in major repairs but in patching up and papering over the cracks. Brussels will focus on consolidating what has been achieved, which will require pinpoint harmonization in particular spheres.
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25 september 2016
Before the Change at the Helm of the UN
For the UN to continue to be truly indispensable, international officials and national governments, members of the academic elite and civil society leaders will have to reach consensus on the way ahead, avoiding over-ambitious plans, but also half-measures portrayed as full-fledged reforms.
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20 september 2016
The Tale of Three Legitimacies: The Shifting Tone and Enduring Substance of Moscow’s Ukraine Policy
The ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a stark reminder that shifts in political tone and military tactics do not necessarily correlate with each other or represent substantive shifts in a state’s foreign policy goals.
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16 july 2016
After Nice, a continent contemplates an ever-clearer truth
As yet another attack claims a shocking toll in innocent lives in France, political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov writes how terrorist acts and the helplessness of secret services are changing Europe before our very eyes
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15 july 2016
The Spirit of the Cold War Is Back as NATO Confronts Russia
After a long quest for a new mission, when NATO tested different roles from global world policemen and expeditionary super-unit to soft security provider and democracy promoter, the organization is back to its habitual business: to contain Russia. What a relief after years of wandering!
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11 july 2016
US Policy And Globalization: Before And After the Global Financial Crisis
How has decay of the American Empire affected globalization? Does the apparent fragmentation of older, Bretton Woods era, more universal forms of global governance into more regional forms imply US relative decline?
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6 july 2016
The Failure of Institutional Binding in NATO-Russia Relations
NATO and Russia have failed to develop institutionalized relations that would bind each side to predictable patterns of behavior. As a result, Europe is now locked in a dangerous spiral of security competition. In order to avoid conflict in the future both sides need to find new ways to make institutional binding work.
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1 july 2016
Without a “Common Space”: A New Agenda for Russia-EU Relations
It is unlikely that the current impasse in Russia-EU relations will be resolved within the next few years. It appeared long before the Ukrainian crisis. It is so deeply rooted that it will persist even if the con?ict in Donbass deescalates and the Minsk agreements are fully implemented. Both sides advocate fundamentally incompatible models for Russia-EU relations and for the economic and political order that should prevail in both “Wider Europe” and Eurasia.
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17 june 2016
The Limits of Capabilities
The analysis of the Russian Navy’s involvement in the Syrian campaign suggests two conclusions. The first one is rather optimistic: the Russian Navy has begun to recover after a long period of decline. The second one is less comforting: the Navy is already facing a shortage of ships of almost all major classes.
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17 june 2016
Learning Lessons of Donald Cook
The Baltic Sea region is gradually becoming center stage in the clash of interests between Russia and NATO members. There is an obvious need for a document on mutual understanding between Russia and NATO to resolve dangerous incidents. The assessment of any actions of one party or another should be strictly legal.
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17 june 2016
What Makes A Great Power War Possible
Numerous international competitors see the use of force as a solution to their challenges. In relations between Russia and NATO, China and Japan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, power plays unfold with unpredictable repercussions.
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9 june 2016
Turkey as a mirror of the New World
The policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are typically viewed as the determining factor for everything that happens within or in connection with Turkey. And, doubtless, a president with such a single-minded desire for power, glory and a place in history does have a significant impact on a country’s course. However, Turkey is an example of how the world is changing in general, and objective factors play a no-less-crucial role than subjective ones in that process.
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7 june 2016
Russian Foreign Policy Finding New Bearings
This year will see the 25th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s breakup and the emergence of new Russia on its ruins. Time is ripe for taking stocks and mapping a road into the future.
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World at a Crossroads and a System of International Relations for the Future
(3150)
Sergey Lavrov -
Chinese School of International Relations
(1492)
Yevgeny Grachikov -
Symmetric versus Asymmetric Rule
(1471)
Paul Robinson -
The Logic of Counterpoint
(1342)
Igor Istomin -
A Predictable Future?
(1291)
Sergei Karaganov
A new world order: A view from Russia
Since around 2017–2018, the world has been living through a period of progressive erosion, or collapse, of international orders inherited from the past. With the election of Donald Trump and the rapid increase of US containment of Russia and China—which is both a consequence of this gradual erosion and also represents deep internal and international contradictions—this process entered its apogee.
Will US pullout from Syria increase risk of conflict with Russia?
The announcement of the US pullout from Syria was received with caution in Moscow. Besides the security and political challenges it may bring about, the Trump decision could mean the end of a practical, relatively constructive US-Russian approach to conflict at flashpoints.
Russia has 3 messages for Turkey over operation in Syria
Russia has its eye on long-term opportunities following Turkey's operation in northeast Syria.
The East’s Rise and the New Russian Foreign Policy
Russia is bracing to turn from its centuries-old foreign policy model (dating back to the Moscow Principality) to maintain direct control over its immediate periphery as a way to provide for its security. How new self-defense methods get integrated into the nation’s strategic culture can play a crucial role in the future.
Russian Interests in the Context of the Iranian-Saudi Crisis
Provocations benefit everyone. They allow strong states to express anger, reaffirm their supremacy, and to even use force but without resorting to war.
Developing the Far East and Chinese-Russian Relations: New Perceptions and New Practices
Developing the Russian Far East and Siberia has been an important step in state-building for Russia. Although there have been debates about appropriate ideas and policies in the strategy, developing the vast frontier region and promoting relations with Asian countries has set a steadfast direction of development for Russia. Chinese-Russian cooperation in the border region during the early stages of imperial Russia’s policies in the Far East holds enlightening significance for today’s bilateral cooperation.
Japan and the Development of the Russian Far East
The main objective for the Shinzo Abe administration’s active engagement in supporting the involvement of Japanese companies in the development of the Russian Far East is to create favourable environment for resolution of the territorial issue and conclusion of a peace treaty with Russia. Japan–Russia cooperation in the Russian Far East is part of Abe’s 8-point cooperation plan with Moscow.