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13 february 2017
Between Empire and Nation State
Between the nation and the empire there lies the term ‘civilization.’ Russia will be doomed to build its identity on the archetypes of civilizational loneliness (an imperial feeling) as there is no system to build itself into to obtain guarantees of further existence.
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13 february 2017
The Birth of a Greater Eurasia
While only recently the West’s dominance looked absolute, now the roles of the teacher and the student, the leader and the straggler are no longer definitely assigned. Сompetition in interpreting reality, defining meanings, and translating values will increasingly grow.
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13 february 2017
Political Cyberwar on the Doorstep
The leaders of major cyber powers have declared an intent to restrict their actions in virtual space. This new weapon looks too lucrative indeed. Major crises will be unavoidable until the main players realize that mutual restrictions and the rules of the game are crucial.
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13 february 2017
A Hunt for “Free Agents”
A “free agent” in the present world may be any influential actor in international processes. To effectively use the “free agent” concept, it is necessary to renounce zero-sum thinking where the West’s gain is necessarily perceived as Russia’s loss, and vice versa.
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13 february 2017
2016 – A Victory of Conservative Realism
We will live in a highly competitive and increasingly unpredictable world. Russia should start economic growth and development in order not to fall behind the new technological revolution again. Economic weakness provokes external pressure.
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17 january 2017
Lukashenko’s “Drift To The West”: Why Moscow Should Not Be Worried
Belarus’ traditional structural dependence on Russia is increasing, and Minsk’s freedom of maneuver continues to shrink.
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23 november 2016
Russia’s Use of Military Force as a Foreign Policy Tool IS THERE A LOGIC?
Russia has used its military beyond its borders with unprecedented frequency in the period since the invasion of Crimea in February 2014.
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18 november 2016
Like Obama, Trump Is Unlikely to Lead as the World’s Policeman
Obama started dismantling America’s global obligations. Trump is likely to take that a step further.
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25 september 2016
Missiles in Europe: Back to the Future?
New disarmament talks are hardly necessary. With the West continuing to dominate the information space, such talks would only be used for inciting greater mistrust and militarizing mentality in Europe. But there is the need for military-to-military dialogue.
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25 september 2016
To Keep Your Balance, Keep Moving
Neither crises nor criticism mean that the EU will fall apart. It will maintain its stability even though it will be engaged not even in major repairs but in patching up and papering over the cracks. Brussels will focus on consolidating what has been achieved, which will require pinpoint harmonization in particular spheres.
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25 september 2016
Before the Change at the Helm of the UN
For the UN to continue to be truly indispensable, international officials and national governments, members of the academic elite and civil society leaders will have to reach consensus on the way ahead, avoiding over-ambitious plans, but also half-measures portrayed as full-fledged reforms.
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20 september 2016
The Tale of Three Legitimacies: The Shifting Tone and Enduring Substance of Moscow’s Ukraine Policy
The ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a stark reminder that shifts in political tone and military tactics do not necessarily correlate with each other or represent substantive shifts in a state’s foreign policy goals.
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16 july 2016
After Nice, a continent contemplates an ever-clearer truth
As yet another attack claims a shocking toll in innocent lives in France, political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov writes how terrorist acts and the helplessness of secret services are changing Europe before our very eyes
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15 july 2016
The Spirit of the Cold War Is Back as NATO Confronts Russia
After a long quest for a new mission, when NATO tested different roles from global world policemen and expeditionary super-unit to soft security provider and democracy promoter, the organization is back to its habitual business: to contain Russia. What a relief after years of wandering!
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11 july 2016
US Policy And Globalization: Before And After the Global Financial Crisis
How has decay of the American Empire affected globalization? Does the apparent fragmentation of older, Bretton Woods era, more universal forms of global governance into more regional forms imply US relative decline?
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6 july 2016
The Failure of Institutional Binding in NATO-Russia Relations
NATO and Russia have failed to develop institutionalized relations that would bind each side to predictable patterns of behavior. As a result, Europe is now locked in a dangerous spiral of security competition. In order to avoid conflict in the future both sides need to find new ways to make institutional binding work.
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1 july 2016
Without a “Common Space”: A New Agenda for Russia-EU Relations
It is unlikely that the current impasse in Russia-EU relations will be resolved within the next few years. It appeared long before the Ukrainian crisis. It is so deeply rooted that it will persist even if the con?ict in Donbass deescalates and the Minsk agreements are fully implemented. Both sides advocate fundamentally incompatible models for Russia-EU relations and for the economic and political order that should prevail in both “Wider Europe” and Eurasia.
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17 june 2016
The Limits of Capabilities
The analysis of the Russian Navy’s involvement in the Syrian campaign suggests two conclusions. The first one is rather optimistic: the Russian Navy has begun to recover after a long period of decline. The second one is less comforting: the Navy is already facing a shortage of ships of almost all major classes.
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17 june 2016
Learning Lessons of Donald Cook
The Baltic Sea region is gradually becoming center stage in the clash of interests between Russia and NATO members. There is an obvious need for a document on mutual understanding between Russia and NATO to resolve dangerous incidents. The assessment of any actions of one party or another should be strictly legal.
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17 june 2016
What Makes A Great Power War Possible
Numerous international competitors see the use of force as a solution to their challenges. In relations between Russia and NATO, China and Japan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, power plays unfold with unpredictable repercussions.
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9 june 2016
Turkey as a mirror of the New World
The policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are typically viewed as the determining factor for everything that happens within or in connection with Turkey. And, doubtless, a president with such a single-minded desire for power, glory and a place in history does have a significant impact on a country’s course. However, Turkey is an example of how the world is changing in general, and objective factors play a no-less-crucial role than subjective ones in that process.
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7 june 2016
Russian Foreign Policy Finding New Bearings
This year will see the 25th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s breakup and the emergence of new Russia on its ruins. Time is ripe for taking stocks and mapping a road into the future.
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30 may 2016
Russia-Turkey Relations and Security Issues in the Caucasus
Last year’s incident with the Russian Su-24 jet instantly changed the very nature of Russia-Turkey relations. What used to be viewed by the leaders of the two countries as a strategic partnership was replaced with harsh confrontation.
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17 may 2016
Will Europe Blink First on Ukraine?
Since July 2014, when Malaysian Airlines MH17 was shot down over the Donbas, the European Union has demonstrated an unprecedented level of solidarity with Ukraine that extends far beyond macroeconomic and technical assistance.
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4 may 2016
Putin's Foreign Policy
The era of bipolar confrontation ended a long time ago. But the unipolar moment of U.S. dominance that began in 1991 is gone, too. A new, multipolar world has brought more uncertainty into international affairs.
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12 april 2016
International Law: Execute Not Pardon
The norms regarding international responsibility are now reduced to defining the responsibility of states for internationally wrongful acts. Yet the main problem lies in the non-binding nature of the majority of decisions made by bodies of international justice and the incompetence of most of them.
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1 april 2016
Russia’s Syrian Campaign: Strategic Gambit or Regional Zugzwang?
The Russian military campaign in Syria has been a major military and political event with significant regional and global consequences. It is post-Soviet Russia’s first openly-conducted full-scale military operation abroad.
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30 march 2016
Arctic Geopolitics
Cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic does not envision military build-up in the region, rather it guarantees mutual benefits from neutralizing U.S. influence and reanimating Arctic economic activity, which slumped after the Ukrainian crisis.
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30 march 2016
To Harass and Wait Out
U.S.-Russian relations begin to resemble the Cold War, as the U.S. institutes containment policies in preparation for a long-term showdown. The issue then becomes who can hold out longer to demonstrate the resolve necessary to get the other side to back down.
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30 march 2016
Worse Than During the Cold War
Neither Ukraine nor Syria has eased psychological tension so far. The United States and partly Russia do not think they have reached the dangerous point. Apparently they still need a bigger crisis to finally settle their issues.
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A new world order: A view from Russia
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Sergey Karaganov, Dmitry Suslov -
US Indo-Pacific Strategy: Myths and Reality
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Robert Manning -
Islam and Global Commons: The Gap between Principles and Practices
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Nourhan El-Sheikh -
The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities
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John Mearsheimer -
A Rapidly Changing Reality
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A new world order: A view from Russia
Since around 2017–2018, the world has been living through a period of progressive erosion, or collapse, of international orders inherited from the past. With the election of Donald Trump and the rapid increase of US containment of Russia and China—which is both a consequence of this gradual erosion and also represents deep internal and international contradictions—this process entered its apogee.
Russia-Japan -- peace can wait
Putin has snubbed Abe as he boosts links with China amid growing US hostility to Beijing and Moscow.
Political Crisis in France: Locked by Elites
We entered a political crisis. The incidents of Saturday, November 1, the evolution of claims and slogans of the Yellow Vests prove it.
Crimea and Punishment
On 25 November, Russia seized 24 Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. It is the first open clash between the two countries since 2014.
Scaling Down Ambitions? G20 Agenda Evolves from Global Governance to Bilateral Consultations
The fate of the G20 is an example of how difficult it is in the modern world to establish any formalized forms of international or global governance. Despite the fact that problems are increasingly truly global in nature, their solution is becoming increasingly national. States do their due for their own citizens and, as a rule, do not take into account the interests of mankind as a whole.
Why We Must Prohibit Cyberattacks on Nuclear Systems: the Case for Pre-Emptive US–Russia Arms Control
Almost 35 years ago, US President Ronald Reagan settled down in the White House to watch the latest Hollywood blockbuster WarGames as part of his regular Sunday film night. The film, starring a young Matthew Broderick, depicted a teenage computer hacker accidentally breaking into top-secret Pentagon supercomputers that controlled US nuclear weapons.
Russia’s Response to Sanctions: How Western Sanctions Reshaped Political Economy in Russia
Since August 2017, legislation allowing the imposition of a range of new sanctions against Russia has been passed by US lawmakers. Although not all this legislation has thus far been implemented by the president, Donald Trump, the mere threat of more draconian economic sanctions from the US created considerable uncertainty in Russia.