Russia in Global Affairs

It is rather natural for an individual, or an entire social group for that matter, to follow well-known and established models which have proven their worth and effectiveness. States are no exception in this regard. After all, history can be written as a patchwork of clashes between established worldviews and the processes seeking to challenge and change them. During periods of gradual change, these contradictions soften. But when change accelerates, stereotypes and behavioural patterns crumble, making it impossible to keep pace.

This is the kind of situation we are currently witnessing in international relations. The experience of the 20th century largely defines today’s worldview. Of course, there was hardly any other period in history in terms of the shocks and suffering that befell humankind. That said, the legacy of the 20th century is becoming less and less relevant when it comes to dealing with the ongoing processes, even if they can be traced back to this past.

For several reasons, including ideological, political and economic, many have come to believe by the end of the previous century that the ideals of a liberal world order must govern the way we share this planet, are not subject to any critical review and are here to stay for an indefinite period of time. Needless to say that this has proven to be an illusion.

In fact, it is that order and what made it stand out that paved the way for the swift, abrupt and sometimes even frightening changes we are witnessing today.

But what are these changes? Are they actually in the process of upending and radically transforming the existing patterns? Or could it be that we are witnessing a transition that will not erase the principles governing international relations entirely, even if it results in a major shake-up? Can it be argued that despite all the mind-boggling technological breakthroughs we are about to revert to the algorithms which had kept the clock ticking in the centuries past instead of getting something radically new and unseen before?

There is no doubt that today’s shifts are profound and are taking place across virtually all domains. That said, they cannot be viewed as an expression of someone’s deliberate will but should rather be regarded as a series of processes which were quite predictable and natural. These changes are not “the biggest since…” – they simply represent a new era that does not need to be compared to any other.

Authors: Oleg Barabanov, Anton Bespalov, Timofei Bordachev, Fyodor Lukyanov, Andrey Sushentsov, Ivan Timofeev.

You can download the report here.

Valdai Discussion Club