Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi on 4-5 December 2025 was more than a ceremonial state visit: it has cemented a new financial backbone for India-Russia trade—a formalized rupee-ruble payment and settlement system. With many Russian banks barred from SWIFT due to Western sanctions, this bilateral currency mechanism becomes the central pivot enabling uninterrupted transactions that are particularly important for energy, infrastructure, and other large-scale strategic deals. By removing dependence on the dollar or euro, the rupee-ruble framework promises speedy, secure, and more predictable cooperation not only between businesses in both countries, but also in joint engagements with third-country partners across the Global South.
Crucially, this new mechanism lays the groundwork for rebalancing bilateral trade, which reached $68.7 billion (approx. ₽5.26 trillion) in FY 2024–2025 but has so far been skewed heavily in Russia’s favor due to New Delhi’s large energy imports. The shared ambition, reiterated during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier visit to Russia in July 2024, is to raise bilateral trade to $100 billion (approx. ₽7.65 trillion) by 2030. This will be supported not just by continued energy cooperation but by expanded Russian investment into high-growth sectors of the Indian economy, including electronics, technology, agriculture, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and digital transformation.
Other complementary initiatives—such as expediting the Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor, aligning government-industry efforts to operationalize the International North–South Transport Corridor, and advancing interoperability and joint projects in space and energy—reflect a consistent drive towards deeper economic integration.
Recognizing the importance of a more collaborative and culturally attuned approach, Russian businesses should be keen on learning Indian business practices, building trust, and nurturing long-term partnerships. Localization, including hiring Indian talent (particularly highly skilled professionals) and tailoring products for local preferences, will be essential for signaling long-term commitment and building a loyal customer base. Additionally, thorough market research and strategic partnerships with umbrella organizations such as the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), as well as smaller bodies like the Indian SME Forum and state- and city-level chambers of commerce (especially the more active ones, such as the Bombay Chamber of Commerce) can provide critical insights and facilitate smoother, more confident market entry.
Russian expertise in energy infrastructure can significantly contribute to solar parks, wind farms, and nuclear projects, especially considering that Russia’s renewable energy market was valued at approximately $13.75 billion (₽1.04 trillion) in 2024, with investments projected to exceed ₽1.3 trillion by 2035. The volume of Russian exports of renewable energy equipment and services is expected to reach ₽20 billion (around USD 266 million) by 2030, while installed capacity is projected to grow from 5.6 GW in 2024 to 8.3 GW by 2030. Engaging in international projects could further strengthen bilateral cooperation in clean energy technologies and reduce the costs associated with renewable energy production both in India and Russia.
The technology-based startup ecosystem—with over 197,000 officially recognized startups by late 2025 and a projected annual growth rate of 12-15%—offers a prime opportunity for collaboration. Partnerships between Russian companies, including cybersecurity, AI, and deep-tech firms—such as Solar Cybersecurity and others currently prospecting for market expansion in India, and Indian counterparts like Paytm, Razorpay, or Zomato—could significantly accelerate innovation and business scale for both sides.
The Indian fintech landscape—already estimated at $150 billion (approx. ₽11.48 trillion) in 2025 and projected to scale towards a $2.1 trillion (approx. ₽160.46 trillion) total addressable market by 2030—offers fertile ground for Russian investors in niche areas such as AI, cybersecurity, and blockchain-based financial technologies. On the other hand, the Russian fintech market reached nearly ₽66 billion (approx. $ 862.6 million) in Q1 2025, showing a 16.1% year-on-year growth and resilience through back-office automation, embedded finance, and AI integration. Collaboration between Russian fintech companies and Indian counterparts could drive the development of innovative payment technologies and enhance cross-border transaction efficiencies, particularly facilitated by the rupee-ruble settlement system and Special Rupee Vostro Accounts.
Meanwhile, the real estate market in India is poised to reach $1 trillion (approx. ₽76.55 trillion) by 2030, creating ample opportunities for Russian investments in commercial and residential developments in rapidly growing metropolises such as Bangalore and Hyderabad, as well as rising Tier-II cities like Indore and Guwahati. With an expected increase of 200 million people in India’s urban population by 2031, Russian developers can benefit by partnering with local firms to co-develop smart city projects and urban infrastructure—both addressing housing demand and benefiting from foreign-investment-friendly reforms”.
With India projected to become the world’s fifth-largest manufacturing country in 2025, capturing approximately $500 billion (approx. ₽38.275 trillion) of the global manufacturing market, Russian firms can invest in strategic industries such as defense, machinery, and electronic components, enhancing supply-chain efficiency while helping fulfil India’s growing demand for high-quality manufacturing capabilities.
Despite this substantial potential, Russian private businesses have traditionally struggled to gain traction in India, often due to the predominant focus on European markets, limited understanding of the local business environment, and diverse consumer preferences across regions. In the emerging scenario, Russian companies can overcome these challenges by establishing regional focus groups, conducting localized consumer research, and forming sister companies that operate independently from parent firms, enabling them to adapt more effectively to the Indian market and to engage not only domestically but also globally.
By leveraging shared interests and focusing on strategic, sector-specific integration, supported by the new rupee-ruble settlement system, both nations are poised to build a more balanced and resilient economic partnership, capable of thriving amid global uncertainties.
