The recent developments in the Middle East are propelling the region into a new reality characterized by uncertainty, intensified competition, conflict, and pronounced polarization among emerging powers vying for influence and dominance.
New security axes are emerging, and regional realignments are reshaping conflicts and rivalries. In this context the recently signed Trilateral Action Plan for military cooperation between Israel, Greece and Cyprus for 2026, which includes the creation a joint “rapid reaction force” to be deployed in times of crisis by sea, land, or air, can be viewed as “part of a broader effort to deter Turkey’s military and strategic activities in the Eastern Mediterranean.” Moreover, this alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean appears to serve as a strategic signal to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Competition for Maritime Control
The contest for dominance over crucial maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa is escalating.
In addition, to counterbalance Turkey’s growing influence (exemplified by Ankara’s deployment of its largest military base TURKSOM in Mogadishu), Israel seeks to establish a robust military presence in the Horn of Africa. This is part of its broader strategy to project power and influence in the area.
Furthermore, Israel prioritizes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a vital maritime corridor for safe passage for its and its allies’ ships, particularly in the event of a future conflict with Iran—if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz.
All of this underscores the region’s significance as a potential flashpoint and Israel’s efforts to preemptively secure its strategic interests.
The strategic significance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait has been highlighted by the tensions and divisions within southern Yemen, particularly between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. These tensions intensified following a military advance by forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in the Hadramawt and al-Mahra governorates. On January 2, 2026, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, the UAE-backed leader of the STC, announced a transition towards the secession of southern Yemen and the establishment of the South Arabian state, which effectively paves the way for the region’s independence from the north.
The Saudi-led coalition, supporting the Yemeni government, responded by targeting the STC’s forces, which led to a severe diplomatic crisis between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia called for all Emirati forces to leave Yemen, stating that its national security was a “red line.” The UAE subsequently withdrew its remaining forces from Yemen to ensure their safety. The conflict escalated into violent clashes on the ground and culminated with the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council’s accusation of Major General Aidarus bin Qasim al-Zubaidi of “high treason” and actions detrimental to state security and unity. A decree terminating his membership in the Council followed promptly.
Currently, two confronting regional alliances can be visualized: one comprising Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, and northern Somalia; and another one including the UAE, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, and Ethiopia. However, given the intertwining strategic interests of these actors, their relationships are nuanced. For example, the UAE-Egypt relations remain cordial, characterized by mutual understanding of each side’s interests and concerns. Conversely, tensions persist between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. Saudi Arabia is cautious about heightening tensions with Israel, largely to avoid U.S. disapproval. Meanwhile, Turkey-Israel relations, although strained since the Israeli war on Gaza and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, have not reached the point of direct confrontation.
Israel’s Three Wars
The Existential Conflict with Iran
Despite the intricate and largely ambiguous geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, certain fundamental realities are clear. Among Israel’s strategic goals and military engagements, regime change in Iran remains a primary objective. Israel perceives the conflict with Iran as existential, one that can only be resolved by dismantling the anti-Israel government in Tehran. Thus, the Israel-Iran confrontation is inherently zero-sum.
Israel’s approach involves hybrid warfare, in which Iran’s domestic unrest, spurred by the opposition’s protests against the economic hardships and worsening living conditions, is meant to serve as a catalyst for regime change.
In pursuit of this goal, Israel is consolidating its alliances and meticulously preparing ground for maximizing a favorable outcome. It believes that Iran’s elimination would automatically lead to the collapse of the broader axis of anti-Israeli resistance by Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
However, this goal may be unattained, and the situation may evolve dramatically.
As the commander of the Iranian army General Amir Hatami warned, the intensified threats against Iran “will not go unanswered;” any Israel’s mistake would be met with a “more decisive response and the severing of the attacker’s hand.” Likewise, Tehran threatened to make all U.S. bases and armed forces in the Middle East a “legitimate target” in response to any potential U.S. aggression.
Hegemony and Influence Conflict with Turkey
The ongoing confrontation between Israel and Turkey is essentially a contest for regional influence and strategic hegemony. Unlike the Israel-Iran conflict, this is not a zero-sum game; yet it remains highly tense and potentially destructive. Historically, proxy conflicts within spheres of influence have had devastating consequences for regional stability.
The sides may come to some kind of strategic understanding and even negotiations on specific contentious issues that are contingent on their security interests and their allies’ influence. Such arrangements can mitigate direct confrontation, yet currently the potential for conflict escalation remains significant.
Border Conflicts with Lebanon, Syria
Israel continues to engage in border conflicts with Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. Despite the severe economic, social, and internal security challenges faced by these nations, the Israeli leadership under Netanyahu persists in expanding its territory under the banner of “border security.” Historically, these conflicts have evolved from full-scale wars that brought all the parties to a state of “exhaustion,” with the frontline states—Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine—wearing away over time.
An illustrative development is an agreement between Syria and Israel signed in Paris on 6 January 2026 for creating a mechanism that will facilitate de-escalation, diplomacy and commercial opportunities between the two countries.
The agreement, said to open “a new page” of the relations between the two countries, implies several strategic shifts: first, Israel’s tacit acknowledgment of the current interim government in Syria; second, “normalization without embassies”, i.e. a convergence of interests; third, Syria’s potential emergence as a “security service provider” to Israel regarding Iran, Lebanon, and possibly beyond; and forth, Netanyahu’s success in reaching an agreement that does not demand ceding the territories Israel occupied following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, not to mention the occupied Golan Heights. These shifts in the regional geopolitical landscape necessitate a close examination of Turkey’s position and potential reactions, given its strategic interests and considerations with regard to Syria.
Its most powerful tool is the media, above all, the Al Jazeera channel. Qatar waits for an opportune moment for establishing itself as an influential regional power—emerging from these conflicts as the least affected player. This approach remains critical for Qatar that has been targeted twice—by Iran and Israel, and shows its desire to prudently calculate its direct regional engagements.
The Middle East is currently navigating through a complex and volatile phase of development. The emergence of new security partnerships, shifting alliances, realignments among regional factions, and the intensifying strategic rivalries underscore the fragility of the region’s stability. Multiple flashpoints heighten the risk of escalation, with the possibility of military confrontation with Iran remaining a major concern. The conflicting interests and the potential deterioration of the Iran crisis are poised to significantly influence the trajectory of the region’s development in 2026 and beyond. The Middle East is seemingly heading towards managing long-term chaos until further notice.
