Since the Ukrainian crisis, and especially since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, US-Russia relations have been on a downward spiral, a trajectory many believed would remain “stable” for a long time, even after the conflict’s end. However, almost overnight, without any prior warning, the United States changed its policy, initiated dialogue with Russia, and quickly began efforts to restore relations. Simultaneously, US-EU relations deteriorated, and Ukraine was effectively abandoned by the United States. In the history of great powers, such a sudden and subversive shift in a country’s diplomatic trajectory, without any fundamental changes in conditions, is extremely rare, though not unprecedented. This development defies the general laws of international politics. The changes in the United States have dramatically altered the international landscape and significantly transformed the course of Russian-American relations.
US-Russia relations have experienced numerous ups and downs over the past three decades. In the early 1990s, under the enthusiastic efforts of Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton, the two nations entered a “honeymoon period,” and in 1993, they declared themselves strategic partners. However, this optimism was short-lived. Due to NATO’s eastward expansion, the Kosovo War, and disputes over Iran, Iraq, arms control, Chechnya, and other issues, US-Russian relations deteriorated into a “cold peace.”
The inaugurations of George W. Bush Jr. and Vladimir Putin in 2000 renewed hopes for improved relations. Following the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, US-Russian relations warmed rapidly, reaching a level of near “comrades-in-arms.” In May 2002, George W. Bush Jr. visited Russia and announced a new strategic partnership between the two countries. However, this rapprochement did not last long. After the US launched the Iraq War in 2003, US-Russian relations cooled once again.
In 2008, both the United States and Russia underwent presidential transitions, with Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev assuming office. This renewed optimism in US-Russia relations led the Obama administration to propose a “reset” strategy. While relations improved slightly, the effort was underpowered and hesitant. The “reset” proved unsustainable even before Medvedev’s presidency ended and was definitively abandoned when Putin returned to the Kremlin in 2012. The Ukraine crisis followed, along with a series of conflicts and sanctions against Russia, driving US-Russian relations to a new low.
In 2017, Trump, who was widely perceived as sympathetic toward Russia, became the US president. Many predicted that he would usher in a new era for US-Russia relations. Contrary to these expectations, however, domestic political constraints in the United States not only prevented any improvement but further strained the relationship. The US began supplying weapons to Ukraine and imposed additional sanctions on Russia. During a heated exchange with Zelensky in the Oval Office on February 28, 2025, Trump proudly declared that while his predecessor had given Ukraine “sheets,” he had provided missiles.
What, then, are the prospects for US-Russia relations this time? Will the two nations repeat the cycle of past failures, or will they break free from this seemingly fatalistic pattern?
This latest shift in US-Russia relations differs from previous ones in several important ways, the most notable being that it has alleviated some of the persistent contradictions that have plagued the bilateral relationship since the Cold War.
Over the past 30 years, NATO’s eastward expansion has been the most significant obstacle in US-Russia relations. Russia vehemently opposes NATO’s expansion, viewing it as a strategic security threat, while NATO insists on continuing its enlargement. This has created an insurmountable barrier to improving US-Russian relations. The United States has been the primary driver of NATO’s expansion, often taking a more aggressive stance than Europe. At the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, it was President George W. Bush who pushed for Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance, a move only thwarted by opposition from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Now, the Trump administration has made it clear that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the near future, effectively ruling out the possibility. While this does not fundamentally resolve the issue, it marks a significant shift. Russia insists on formal guarantees at the level of international law, which it wants included in any final peace treaty. The process of Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been ongoing since the 2008 Bucharest summit, and at the February 2025 Washington Summit commemorating NATO’s 75th anniversary, it was declared that Ukraine’s path to membership was “irreversible.” From Russia’s perspective, these political positions must be formally corrected.
In any case, the new US policy has significantly eased tensions between Russia and the United States, raising hopes of removing one of the most contentious issues in their relationship. If Ukraine were to join a European-oriented military alliance in the future, the resulting conflict would primarily involve Russia and Europe, not Russia and the United States. Should NATO continue to fragment and weaken, or even disintegrate, the issue of NATO enlargement would naturally disappear from the US-Russia agenda.
Security issues have always been central to US-Russia relations. The US has long viewed Russia as a security threat and adversary, a stance enshrined in official strategy documents, including the National Security Strategy (2017) and the National Defense Strategy (2018) during Trump’s first term, as well as the 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance and the 2022 National Defense Strategy Report under Biden.
Since his return to office, however, Trump’s perspective has shifted. He now downplays Russia’s security threat to the United States, viewing Russia primarily as a threat to Europe. America’s new Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, speaking at a meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group in December 2024, stated that the US security focus would shift from Europe to the Asia-Pacific, with Europe taking primary responsibility for its own security. This indicates that while the Trump administration has not yet formally redefined Russia’s security threat, the trend is clear: Russia’s perceived threat to the US has diminished. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be resolved through a peace agreement, it would further reinforce this shift. Although both China and Russia are officially defined as security threats by the US, China is considered a “comprehensive and persistent threat,” while Russia is seen as an “acute threat,” largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Should the war end, Russia’s perceived threat level would likely decrease further.
To a certain extent, Trump has moved away from value-based diplomacy, a traditional pillar of American liberal foreign policy and a major source of tension in US-Russia relations. Value-based diplomacy is fundamentally incompatible with Russia’s diplomatic philosophy, leading to ideological and policy clashes between the two nations. The US often divides the world based on ideology, transcends international law, and interferes in other countries’ internal affairs under the guise of promoting democracy, even orchestrating “color revolutions” to legitimize the overthrow of governments.
It is important to note that value-based diplomacy is not purely ideological; it is also driven by geopolitical interests. The regimes targeted by “color revolutions” are often those disliked by the West, while the new governments that emerge are typically pro-Western. The West has labeled Russia an authoritarian state, opposing its values and branding it an “outcast” in the global political moral system. This has created an invisible barrier between the West and Russia. Trump, however, is notoriously dismissive of ideology in favor of practical interests. He is willing to engage with any country for mutual benefit and will not hesitate to confront any nation, regardless of its ideology, if interests conflict. In doing so, Trump has at least reduced the impact of ideological factors on US-Russia relations.
Since Trump’s return to office, there is a possibility that Russia and the United States could restart strategic arms reduction negotiations. Nuclear arms control has long been a cornerstone of US-Russia security relations. The New START Treaty is set to expire in February 2026. Given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, negotiations on a new treaty have been stalled. If Russia and the US can resume talks and reach a new agreement, it would have a significant positive impact on easing tensions between the two nations.
In summary, Trump’s approach to diplomacy has profoundly impacted several key concepts and policies of American foreign policy. Strategically, it has moved away from Atlanticism, weakened alliance policies, and reduced support for NATO, creating a major rift between the US and Europe. Ideologically, it has abandoned liberalism and value-based diplomacy, no longer determining foreign policy based on whether a country is democratic or authoritarian. In terms of security strategy, it has shifted from a dual containment approach, placing greater emphasis on the Chinese threat while downplaying Russia’s perceived threat to the US. Finally, in prioritizing national interests, Trump’s administration focuses on economic gains, avoids war, seeks business opportunities, and aims to replace military conflict in Ukraine with trade competition.
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