No Need to Wait for an Attack, the Threat of War Is in the Air
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Sergei A. Karaganov

Professor Emeritus
National Research University–Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs
Academic Supervisor;
Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
Honorary Chairman of the Presidium


SPIN RSCI: 6020-9539
ORCID: 0000-0003-1473-6249
ResearcherID: K-6426-2015
Scopus AuthorID: 26025142400


Email: [email protected]
Address: Office 103, 17, Bldg.1 Malaya Ordynka Str., Moscow 119017, Russia

“Russia and China need to think about creating a joint strategy to strengthen peace. There is no need to wait for someone’s attack – the threat of war in the air,” Valdai Club expert Sergei Karaganov, who takes part in the Russian-Chinese conference in Shanghai, told valdaiclub.com in an exclusive interview. 

Do Russia and China share a common vision of the world order? Sergei Karaganov believes that a common vision is undoubtedly being worked out. This was evident at the first session of the Club’s conference on April 25, which was “unusually candid and open,” and where the views of Russia and China on the situation in the world were discussed. 

According to the expert, the main task at the time of the new world order formation is to create a joint strategy for strengthening peace. “We used to believe that no large-scale wars would happen, but the situation is dangerous now, the threat of war is in the air,” Karaganov said. 

“We understand that the world is changing, in an unknown direction, clearly not in the Western one, but we still don’t know whether it is anti-Western or not. But it is clearly more dangerous – at least for the next historical period, until a new balance of forces and a new international system are established,” Karaganov said. 

“The main task for this time, and there is agreement on this here [at the conference], we need to put together a joint strategy to strengthen peace,” the expert said. According to him, it is necessary to act more actively to counter the growing threat of war. 

“It’s not even necessary to wait for someone’s attack, the threat of war is in the air. Such rapid changes have never happened in the world. A conscious strategy is needed in order to avoid a big war,” Sergei Karaganov emphasized. 

The 5th Russian-Chinese conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, titled “Russia and China: Contemporary development challenges” is being held in Shanghai and is attended by more than 50 officials and leading experts from Russia and China. You can download the Programme here.

The Valdai Discussion Club