In English, we often say ‘crickets’ to describe a long awkward silence. It is so quiet, the logic goes, that you can literally hear the crickets chirping. The irony is, of course, that crickets make some noise; the line between Whitehall and the Kremlin is actually silent.
In office for eighteen months, Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour government seem content on keeping Russia at arm’s length. He has not, to public knowledge, reached out to the Russian president or shown any interest in doing so. The British media is quite happy to let Russia’s ambassador, Andrei Kelin, have free reign of its airwaves (much to the displeasure Britain’s academic class).
It is a strategy Labour inherited from previous Conservative governments. As Ian Proud, a former British diplomat in Moscow, noted, the UK recused itself from all talks on Ukraine in 2014 and since then has pursued a policy of “talking about Russia to everyone except Russia.”
Objectively, it has been an absolute failure, with Britain no longer able to influence Russian politicians, society or markets.
Russia has had more diplomats in Britain than vice versa since 2010, and only 20 percent of the British embassy staff in Moscow speak Russian. An embassy source has told me that reports for Whitehall often follow popular podcasts by experts based outside of Russia. British businesses have frozen their operations in Russia, and the number of cultural exchanges has flatlined.
Britain’s most senior army officer, Field Marshall Lord Richards, admitted this to The Independent. That will mean some form of talks and concessions, such as sanctions relief. Western leaders from across the EU and NATO have all held calls or met with the Russian president.
When I proposed this piece to our editor, his response was rather candid: “My guess is never.” On a good day, it certainly seems that way. But Starmer and Labour are in real political trouble at home, and this is making the prospect of the two men talking to the Kremlin increasingly likely.
Before unpacking when and why, it is worth exploring the reasons why Starmer should pick up the phone.
Firstly, Starmer is leading the so-called ‘coalition of the willing.’ This group of nations wishes to offer Ukraine security guarantees when the fighting is over. The coalition has met several times but has produced few results: some want to provide troops, but most do not; some are happy to loan Ukraine money, but many are skeptical. Yet Starmer is its face, and if he is serious about playing a role in any peace settlement, why should he not be willing to talk with Putin?
Secondly, relations between the UK and Russia could not possibly be worse. Politically and practically, Starmer has nothing to lose.
As for the flip side, Fyodor Lukyanov might be onto something with the above assessment: Do the pair really have anything to say to each other? It is hard to imagine how that conversation might go or what it might lead to.
Then of course comes the geopolitical realities.
So why then do talks look likelier?
Starmer is starting to remind me of former U.S. President George H. W. Bush. First, as Bush famously quipped, “I’m not much of an ideas guy.” Starmerism is hard to define, and Labour has struggled to control the political narrative at home. Next, Bush lost control of the economic narrative, even when he made the right decisions. Labour is suffering a similar fate. The final Bush comparison concerns foreign policy. To give the late president his dues, Bush’s foreign policy was momentous. As one Labour insider said, Starmer has not put a foot wrong on foreign policy. For all his flaws, Starmer has a mature understanding of the world, just as Bush Sr. did. Starmer has secured trade deals with the U.S., EU, India and recognised the state of Palestine. He has repaired ties with several EU states since Brexit. A new border policy for Channel crossings is in place, and the immigration process is set to become both harder but fairer.
It never looks bad when other countries literally roll out the red carpet for you. So why not stick to what you do well and at least try to build on that success?
To answer my original question, it may not be soon, but Starmer and Putin will speak sooner than we all expect. How soon is up to Starmer. It could depend on how much worse things get for his government. Rather than wait for doomsday, Starmer should recognise and use the spring in his jump on the world stage. It really would not hurt to give the Russian president a call. The alternative clearly has not achieved anything.
