As geopolitical tensions persist, the U.S. and Russia appear poised for a prolonged standoff—but could there be a path beyond confrontation? In a recent Domino Theory episode, hosts Mark Simon and Christian Whiton delve into this question with Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. From economic maneuvering to behind-the-scenes dialogues, their discussion reveals how both nations are cautiously preparing for a future after Ukraine. What might this shift look like, and how will it reshape global dynamics? Explore the evolving U.S.-Russia relationship and the forces quietly redefining it.
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Fyodor Lukyanov on whether it is possible for the United States and Russia to cooperate or at least discuss issues other than Ukraine even if the war continues, especially in light of Trump’s comment this week about backing away:
Fyodor Lukyanov: …It depends on what Trump means when he says that United States will walk away. Because walking away might mean total disengagement. “It’s not my business. You guys, you might kill each other. As long as you believe it’s necessary. It’s not my business. I go to other issues. I don’t want to have anything to do with this war.”
If it means that this engagement includes both diplomatic and political efforts and military support to Ukraine, then to put it bluntly, Russia is fine because without American support—and this support still now is very significant when it comes to intelligence and several issues—without this support Ukraine will have a much tougher time.
And for Russia it’s fine. In this case, I think for Russia it’s absolutely okay to discuss whatever United States would like to discuss. Other issues, be it Middle East, be it Iran, be it Arctic economic cooperation, whatever, why not?
Mark and Fyodor explore possible areas of US-Russia discussion or cooperation:
Mark Simon: What are the areas [of possible cooperation]? Is it Islamic terrorism? Is it drugs? What are the areas that the Russians would be interested in? In other words if you came, you said, okay, you’re gonna do something with this, what would the Russians bite on?
Fyodor Lukyanov: Islamic terrorism? Yes. But let us be realistic. Is it such a big issue in the international agenda just now? No, it’s not. We see a lot of troubles everywhere connected to this, but it’s completely different from what we had say 15, 20, 25 years ago. And I think that interaction between security services should be resumed because that’s what both sides need. We know that previously—unfortunately not on the regular basis—but we remember a couple of episodes of pretty useful exchanges of information. Americans gave something to Russians and Russians gave something to Americans, which helped to discover some terror threats.
… Russia might be pretty flexible when it comes to the whole package of issues connected to Israel Palestine, Syria, Iran. All this is a conglomerate of different but interrelated topics, each of which is extremely difficult and pretty dangerous.
But I don’t see a huge confrontation on this. And again, if United States will not be on the other side in Ukrainian situation—it does mean Americans need to be on the Russian side, but at least neutral or distant—then I think that the Middle East is not that high a priority for Russia that it would require to be totally, without compromise and, so to say, a struggle for interest against Americans… I think it’s this negotiable and some things might be doable and we see that Trump, despite the rhetoric, which was very harsh at the beginning on Iran and many issues, but we see that in fact, he is much more flexible, actually be it on Syria, be it on Iran even, and so on.
And even with the Israeli issue, we see much more of flexibility than people expect. So again I think that’s an interesting area to, to work, to discuss. The Arctic, which is interesting for Trump based on what we saw about Canada, about Greenland. And so I think, again, actually there is not such a huge discrepancy between Russia and the United States.
Christian and Fyodor discuss Europe’s divorce from Russia and the creeping failure of European integration:
Christian Whiton: Is Russia ready for a divorce from Europe and a focus elsewhere?
Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia was not at all ready or divorced with Europe. But Europe decided to divorce from Russia, and that happened overnight in 2022. That was extremely painful, and I must say unexpected on this side. I remember some speculations among people who allegedly had to do with this decision-making about the Ukrainian operation.
And the expectation was that, of course, the relationship with European Union will deteriorate sharply and very significantly for a short period because no one here, almost no one could imagine that Europe would act in such a destructive way for itself, economically devastatingly cutting economic ties, which were mostly favorable for Europe, even more favorable for Europe than for Russia.
But they, they did it for reasons which we can discuss. And that was I would say that was a shock for many people here, but that was three and a half years ago. And now willingly or unwillingly, but people got used to that. Europe is economically, culturally, and in many regards, Europe is not with us and we are not with Europe. I wouldn’t say everybody’s happy about that, but it’s fact of life…
…Deepening and widening of [European] integration might be might be good for us, for Russia and for the United States. Now, again, for different reasons, completely different reasons, but both Americans and Russians came to the conclusion that actually it would be much more comfortable and efficient to deal with particular European countries, Germany, France, Britain, Poland, whoever, Slovakia, any, but not with the European institutions and European Union as a big institution. And I think it is a huge change. This is not because of war with Ukraine.
This is because of changing the nature of the European integration, which is now something different than it was say 25 years ago. Changing nature of Russia, changing nature of the United States, and completely changing nature of the whole international system and this new system, European Union. This integrated entity is, I would say is not an asset anymore: for us, for you, and maybe even for Europeans, it’s not an asset is anymore.
Fyodor Lukyanov on the new order coming together:
Fyodor Lukyanov: I think we are now at some kind of turning point.
It depends on what happens in the next couple of weeks: probably if we will be able to start to walk away from this crisis. I don’t mean Trump only, but Russia. Russia as well. I think that the new agenda, a completely new agenda will be needed because one of troubles with previous people, administrations, and experts was that we tried to recycle the same agenda for decades, which didn’t work.
Now we need something else. And fortunately the whole world is changing, so now there’s no need to convince anybody that we need new approaches. I think everybody understands that.
Transcript Fyodor Lukyanov On Domino Theory
