Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 3

2009 July/September

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Contents

No Lull in Sight

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

An Exhausted Resource

Olga Kryshtanovskaya

Is There a Demand for Modernization in Russia?

Mikhail Afanasiev

Russia’s Modernization: At Another Fork in the Road

Dmitry Badovsky

How to Overcome the National Crisis

Victor Kremenyuk

Energy Markets in a Turbulent Zone

Tatyana Mitrova

Approaching the Far Away

Alexander Chepurin

Russia and the U.S.: Reconfiguration, Not Resetting

Sergei A. Karaganov, Timofei V. Bordachev, Dmitry V. Suslov

Rethinking Security in “Greater Europe”

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Towards Legal Universalism

Labyrinths of the Arctic Policy

Oleg Alexandrov

The Return of Turkey

Tigran Torosyan

The Fundamental Conflict

Yevgeny Primakov

The Afghan Problem in the Regional Context

Ivan A. Safranchuk

The Post-Crisis World: Searching for a New Framework

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Articles

No Lull in Sight

There has been no traditional summertime lull in Russian politics this year. The breath of the crisis is felt everywhere. In Russia, it forces the government to take preventive measures – many analysts predict a hot autumn prone with social problems. But in the international arena, new opportunities are opening up, which Moscow does not want to miss.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

An Exhausted Resource

The Russian state itself became actually the only source for the modernization efforts. This is the major problem of modernization projects in authoritarian states: the government has to face social problems alone. Even with the tacit support from the public, it is difficult to address large-scale tasks in the absence of active civil society.

Olga Kryshtanovskaya

Is There a Demand for Modernization in Russia?

The consumer adaptive individualism and mutual mistrust within elites, together with the specifics of “sovereign democracy,” are a major obstacle to a normal political withdrawal from the crisis through the establishment of effective parties or factions within the ruling party.

Mikhail Afanasiev

Russia’s Modernization: At Another Fork in the Road

Solution to the problems of power and the destiny of modernization has been put off until the 2012 election, when the final choice of the parameters of future development could be determined by either Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin or Dmitry Medvedev’s continued presidency.

Dmitry Badovsky

How to Overcome the National Crisis

The theory and history of international relations abounds in the misconception that the bigger a country, the greater its freedom of action. In reality, it is the other way around.

Victor Kremenyuk

Energy Markets in a Turbulent Zone

The anti-crisis strategy is universal for all sectors of the economy – the main emphasis is placed on reducing costs. This is particularly important for the Russian oil and gas industry. The short respite given by the ruble devaluation is drawing to a close.

Tatyana Mitrova

Approaching the Far Away

The presence of an influential and consolidated Russian community abroad meets Russia’s national interests. A community interwoven and integrated in the public and political life of the country where it lives – rather than an assimilated or marginalized one – could make up a full-fledged part of the global Russian world.

Alexander Chepurin

Russia and the U.S.: Reconfiguration, Not Resetting

It would make sense for Moscow to offer its own package of ideas to Washington regarding the improvement of relations, and this package should be bigger than the one proposed by President Obama. The two countries must take a course towards a “big deal” based on the analysis of vital interests of the sides and their priority ranking. The parties should pledge respect for each other’s interests in the areas where these interests are truly vital, while making concessions on secondary issues.

Sergei A. Karaganov, Timofei V. Bordachev, Dmitry V. Suslov

Rethinking Security in “Greater Europe”

The proposal to build a new European security architecture, which Russian President Dmitry Medvedev put forward in Berlin in June 2008 and which he followed up in November in Evian, was Moscow’s first attempt in 20 years to formulate a coherent foreign-policy vision.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Towards Legal Universalism

The very idea of reviving the intergovernmental dialogue on security in Europe reflects the legal universalism of Russian politics that has been characteristic of this country throughout almost all of its history since Peter the Great and that is typical of Medvedev’s political style.

Labyrinths of the Arctic Policy

The creation of a regional security system, such as a Baltic Union, would help to consolidate Russia’s positions in Northern Europe and in the Arctic, as this system could be a prototype for a new, co-operative security system in Europe.

Oleg Alexandrov

The Return of Turkey

The Georgian-Russian war became a momentous event as it caused other countries to revise Russia’s role in world politics, the practice of conflict management, and other factors. The war has produced a new situation, which requires a comprehensive analysis of the roles of other regional actors, above all Turkey.

Tigran Torosyan

The Fundamental Conflict

If Israel annexes the Arab territories it occupied in 1967, it will soon cease to be a Jewish state as the ratio between the Jewish and Arab populations in it will inevitably change in favor of the latter due to its birth rates.

Yevgeny Primakov

The Afghan Problem in the Regional Context

Russia by no means is interested in a defeat of the international forces in Afghanistan, as it would create new security problems. But Moscow does not see prospects for a military victory. And if these prospects appeared, they would give a green light to “Greater Central Asia” infrastructure projects that would be economically disadvantageous for Russia.

Ivan A. Safranchuk

The Post-Crisis World: Searching for a New Framework

This century will be neither “American” nor “North Atlantic” – but neither the Americans nor the Europeans or the Russians are interested in seeing the 21st century becoming “Asian” and especially “Chinese.” Today as never before all of them need unity.

Vladislav Inozemtsev