Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 1

2010 January/March

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Contents

New Problems and Old Mentality

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Fostering a Culture of Harmony

Ahmet Davutoglu

Delayed Neutrality?

Alexei Bogaturov

“L’Etat, C’Est Lui!”

A Pre-Westphalian World Economy

Timofei V. Bordachev

The Sum of Crises

Maxim Shcherbakov

Russia’s Positioning Amid Global Uncertainty

Grand Strategy

The Secrets of Serdyukov’s Blitzkrieg

Values for the Sake of Unification

Konstantin Kosachev

Strategic Havoc

Sergei A. Karaganov

Russia and the Neighborhood

Post-Soviet Nations in the Garden of Forking Paths

Svyatoslav I. Kaspe

Cooperation Instead of Containment

Nikolai Kapitonenko

Politics Ahead of the Economy

Andrey Suzdaltsev

Articles

New Problems and Old Mentality

The problems of national and global security have once again come to the fore in recent months. Russia, the United States and other leading states and their alliances (NATO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization) are trying to adapt to the constantly changing environment. In many cases, the reality outruns people’s mentality, which remains a captive of views inherited from the past decades.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Fostering a Culture of Harmony

Turkey’s foreign policy has three main characteristics: it is vision-oriented, not crisis-oriented; it is proactive, not reactive; and it is integrated and systemic, operating across a 360-degree horizon. We pursue a policy of “zero problems” in our neighborhood. We believe that this is an achievable goal, if enough trust and confidence can be generated among the relevant parties.

Ahmet Davutoglu

Delayed Neutrality?

Smaller nations have to avoid taking sides. But the maneuvering vector did not make up all of their foreign policies. Regional states tend to be neutral. The principle of potential or delayed neutrality has become a system-making element in international relations in Central Asia.

Alexei Bogaturov

“L’Etat, C’Est Lui!”

Islam Karimov has never made a secret of the fact that he does not separate the notions of ‘Uzbekistan’ and ‘President.’ Karimov’s brainchild has gone through numerous harsh tests over the past two decades but now it is facing the harshest one. The challenges are too momentous to be matched by the experience of Soviet-era nomenklatura, even the one bolstered by the nationalistic aspirations that always go hand-in-glove with the construction of a new statehood.

A Pre-Westphalian World Economy

Establishing global governance institutions such as an Economic League of Nations might offer a response to the challenge that arises from the growing independence of the global economy. Such institutions should regulate the entire world economy in the same way that they regulate individual economic sectors.

Timofei V. Bordachev

The Sum of Crises

The divergence between reality and axioms generates chimerical categories, unrealistic in life, such as the “free market economy,” “rational economic agents” or the “state of balance.” These are hypothetical abstractions at best, but more often they are propaganda clich's. They are not found in nature and therefore are useless in practice.

Maxim Shcherbakov

Russia’s Positioning Amid Global Uncertainty

The end of the active stage of the crisis does not mean an automatic return to the old situation. We are likely to see a fundamental overhaul of the global economic system during the next few years. The role of the state as an initiator of development programs may grow to a level beyond which the free market idea may be invalid.

The Secrets of Serdyukov’s Blitzkrieg

Serdyukov’s personal qualities, above all his outstanding managerial skills, have played a major role in his success. Yet, the main factor in the record-fast radical renovation of the Armed Forces is of objective nature and is not directly linked with the minister’s personal qualities. This factor is that Anatoly Serdyukov is the first truly civilian defense minister of Russia.

Since the time when the Russian military bases were deployed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the number of conflicts and cross-border skirmishes between Georgia and the new states, which it refuses to recognize, has decreased, and their intensity has declined greatly.

Values for the Sake of Unification

It is clear that no European security model will work without NATO or on the basis of NATO alone – even if all countries from Vancouver to Vladivostok are admitted to NATO.

Konstantin Kosachev

Strategic Havoc

The world-class strategic players, including the main one – the United States – are getting ever more confused and dismayed as they lose
the old bearings only to find no new ones.

Sergei A. Karaganov

Post-Soviet Nations in the Garden of Forking Paths

Until a method is found in Russia for generating a non-Soviet (different from the restoration of the pre-Soviet) central system of values, democratic institutions and practices will remain weak. Moreover, the vectors of movement for post-Soviet polities, which twenty years ago were labeled as a “democratic transition” in a burst of overly audacious hope, will remain forking paths.

Svyatoslav I. Kaspe

Cooperation Instead of Containment

Russia could benefit greatly from Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO. The benefits would be felt on the bilateral, regional and global levels – in geostrategic and political terms, and in terms of international image. Unfortunately, today’s Russia cannot offer Ukraine anything of equal value for attaining the parity of mutual benefits.

Nikolai Kapitonenko

Politics Ahead of the Economy

A collapse of the Customs Union project, which is not ruled out if the project is poorly conceived, will mean Russia’s loss of the status of the main force steering integration processes in the post-Soviet space. This will push the CIS into the sphere of integration processes designed by external forces – the EU, China, etc.

Andrey Suzdaltsev