Russia in Global Affairs

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RSCI Scopus

No. 1

2012 January/March

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Contents

The Arab Spring as the End of an Era

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

A Focus on the Middle East

A Greater Middle East Spring? Or War?

A Labyrinth with No Walls

Arab Solutions to Arab Problems?

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

From an Underdeveloped Country to a Regional Power

The Nature of Power

Russia in Global Society

Timofei V. Bordachev

Post-Soviet Moods

An Eternal Ghost

Returning to a Place That No Longer Exists

The SCO as a Rising Master of the Heartland

Vitaly Vorobyov

Not-So-Newly Independent States

The Spiral of Independence

Yuri Drakokhrust

Between Adolescence and Adulthood

Each Unhappy in Its Own Way

Nikolai Silayev

The Caucasus in Transitions

The EU, Russia and the South Caucasus – Building Confidence

Quest for Stability in the Karabakh Conflict

Sergey Minasyan

In Search of Reciprocal Compromises

Gulshen Pashaeva

Articles

The Arab Spring as the End of an Era

The Arab Spring has entered its second year, and the course of events has vividly proved the predictions of analysts.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

A Greater Middle East Spring? Or War?

The tight knot of contradictions surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and Tehran’s policy in general has affected so profound international policies that any attempt to cut it may blow up peace already in the short term, and not only in the Greater Middle East.

A Labyrinth with No Walls

Russia should step over its prejudices and take a look at today’s Iran as its serious and long-term partner in the region – not at the declarative level, but at the level of action. Such attempts have been made from time to time, but now and then they are interrupted – out of the wrong fear to anger the Americans.

Arab Solutions to Arab Problems?

By virtue of its very small local population and its extremely high level of oil and gas resources, Qatar simply does not face the socio-economic or political pressures coursing through the region. Uniquely, it has embraced the Arab uprisings as an opportunity, rather than a challenge, to cement its international (Western) reputation, albeit at the expense of some of its regional relationships.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

From an Underdeveloped Country to a Regional Power

What we observe in Turkey is the emergence of a middle power with an ambitious leader that may sometimes overjudge his own powers, but aiming to enhance the power position of his country during a period of a major world economic crisis and rapidly changing circumstances.

Russia in Global Society

A power resource (a component of power) is important not by itself but when applied to circumstances where it can be used, or to a specific form of relations between states. The component of power that plays the key role in specific relations is viewed as the key indicator, and a new balance of power can be defined on its basis.

Timofei V. Bordachev

An Eternal Ghost

At this point the ambitious Eurasian project promising to unite Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus into a single economic space is not so much an attempt to generate an original economic model and, consequently, an economic strategy, but rather is an attempt to integrate into an intensive exchange of commodities between the EU and Asia by offering a shorter route for cargo shipments.

Returning to a Place That No Longer Exists

Entire generations of people born in the former Soviet Union would wholeheartedly support unification, but a logical question arises: With whom are we going to unite? A country that has assimilated the worst from Western capitalism, rampant with xenophobia and domestic racism, and which is suffering from a demographic and technological decline? A country whose economy is controlled by the mafia and oligarchs?

The SCO as a Rising Master of the Heartland

Russia and China make up the backbone of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Equating the ongoing search for a positive balance of Russian and Chinese interests with an incessant tug of war for asserting one’s hegemony would be a biased conclusion that would be contrary to the way the SCO is organized and functions.

Vitaly Vorobyov

The Spiral of Independence

The irony of history is that it was Lukashenko – a fighter against nationalism and a politician who promised to restore the Soviet Union – who became, in a sense, the founding father of the modern independent Belarusian state. Even within the framework of quasi-Soviet national ideology, pro-European attitudes in Belarus keep growing.

Yuri Drakokhrust

Between Adolescence and Adulthood

Ukraine is always said to be at a “crossroads.” It has so many existential dilemmas of national identity and foreign policy direction. But this time its partners are demanding answers and its options really are narrowing. It is in danger of becoming a dysfunctional semi-autocracy and a double periphery rather than a mutual neighborhood.

Each Unhappy in Its Own Way

After gaining independence, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have been plagued by wars and ethnic conflicts, they have lost transport links, and government agencies have collapsed. Yet the respective political regimes have had diverse fates: although the starting points and international situation were similar when they launched their policies, the outcome is fairly different.

Nikolai Silayev

The EU, Russia and the South Caucasus – Building Confidence

Closed borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, as well as the absence of functional relations between Russian and Georgia, severely hamper the full potential of the region.

Quest for Stability in the Karabakh Conflict

The main and only goal of conventional deterrence, used by the Armenian parties, and political containment, owed largely to the positions of the international community and influential external actors, is to maintain stability and fragile peace in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Sergey Minasyan

In Search of Reciprocal Compromises

Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan were terminated in 1994, but the sides remain divided over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku argues, with reliance on European practices, that the sole way towards reconciliation between the two neighboring peoples lies in the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan and the highest degree of self-government granted to it.

Gulshen Pashaeva