Russia in Global Affairs

Moscow and Minsk need the closer and deeper coordination of foreign and defense policy, given the military and political instability in Western Eurasia, and especially given the Ukraine crisis, which is unlikely to end after an agreement is signed and ceasefire implemented.

So, Eurasia stands at present as a place of immense opportunities for its countries and peoples. The way to realize these opportunities is through comprehensive approaches that would account for Eurasia’s wholeness, uniqueness, complexity and diversity. Belarus believes that the above task can be realized by means of the Eurasian Charter for Diversity and Multipolarity in the XXI century.

Can Russia secure a transfer of power in Belarus to someone it views as acceptable? Let’s be honest: the whole business of regime change and, more generally, capitalizing on the domestic politics of neighboring countries isn’t Russia's strong suit.

The underlying purpose of a constructive solution would be saving lives. Any measures should be aimed at de-escalating the crisis and reducing the likelihood of its aggravation and transformation into a continental crisis.

There were no consistent lines of regional differentiation in the public opinion in Belarus, with the exception of differences in residents’ perception of the center (the capital) and peripheral regions.

Ukraine, which became the apple of geopolitical discord in 2014, is now also turning into one of the key factors behind the emerging schism in the Orthodox world. This psychologically and mentally complex factor may be employed in the geopolitical struggle where Orthodoxy, as an instrument of influence and political governance, will be used more and more often for achieving certain goals. Therefore, Orthodox church life may go beyond the narrow religious bounds and become a matter of national security.

In the future, the leading position in Belarus may be taken by those groups that are absolutely indifferent to the ideas of national revival, and which are focused on economic, political and military integration with the West. Today’s clash of “red-greens” with “white-red-whites” is beneficial to them. The third force, positioning itself as a “new multi-vector”, but having a clear Atlantic vector, will not manifest itself in the nearest future and will be formed among people who today still go to rallies both “for Lukashenko” and “against Lukashenko”.

Will Belarus become a geopolitical pivot point that leads to a dangerous divide in Europe? The rapidly developing situation in Belarus could potentially trigger the most significant shift in the European status quo since events in Ukraine in 2014. CFTNI Vice President George Beebe moderates a panel featuring Fyodor Lukyanov, David Marples, Nikolas Gvosdev and Michael Kofman to examine these important questions. Watch the video.

Abstract Ukrainians and Belarusians used to match Anthony David Smith’s notion of a demotic ethnie, an ethnic group without the upper strata. For centuries both…