Russia in Global Affairs

Globalization American-style has reached its natural limits, and now China and Asia as a whole are becoming the main beneficiaries of world development. The current growth of neomercantilism, protectionism and regionalization in the world resembles the situation of the decade before World War I.

Faced with threats ranging from climate change to hugely disruptive technological advances, the world is clearly at a crossroads. More than ever a stable, inclusive and global governance is needed.

This article is an abridged and revised version of the paper written for the Valdai International Discussion Club. The original copy is available at: http://valdaiclub.com/a/valdai-papers/the-global-resurgence-of-economic-nationalism/…

Moscow appears to be unprepared for polycentrism as it has not yet grasped its basic rule, which was well known to Russian chancellors of the 19th century: one should make compromises on individual issues in order to have closer relations with other centers of power than they have among themselves.

Tendencies will continue—a geopolitical shift towards Eurasia and the Asia Pacific Region; symbolic ‘sovereignization’ of Russia and its further distancing from the U.S. and Europe; and the erosion of a foreign policy consensus. The fourth edition of Putin’s foreign policy will most likely differ significantly from the previous three.

A concert of powers in which European nations performed throughout the 19th century provided for peace and tranquility on the continent for almost a hundred years. Today, in an era of overall domination by one country and collapse of the former international architecture, it is time to recall the principles of that Concert. But now the Concert will have to be played according to global scores of the new millennium.

Against a background of shifting geoeconomic power from the West to the East, economic nationalism has become the development strategy that allows rising powers to reverse negative asymmetry in interdependent economic relationships.

Concerns over the global economic slowdown appear to be gradually receding this year as the global economy is set to muster an acceleration in growth on the back of a strong showing by the Eurozone, the US and China.

American-style globalization is being replaced not with its Asian variety, but a very harsh geopolitical reaction to protectionism as an antagonist of globalization.