Russia in Global Affairs

As for the “eternal peace” promised in Sharm el-Sheikh, its limits will become apparent soon enough. History in this region has never lacked for deals, mediators, or grand declarations. What it has always lacked is a place for the Palestinians themselves. And without them, peace will remain, as ever, a mirage in the desert.

For the Netanyahu right-wing government, the Israelis traumatized by the perceived existential threat from the Palestinians, compounded by the historical trauma of the Holocaust injustices, had to respond to Hamas’s attacks with genocide in Gaza. Once the psychological barriers were overcome, violence became highly tangible.

The Middle East’s enduring conflict and instability are not merely the result of historical grievances or ideological differences, they are fundamentally rooted in the international system’s anarchic structure and states’ inherent drive to maximize their power and security.

Several leading Western countries – Britain, Canada, Australia, and a group of EU members led by France – have announced their recognition of Palestinian statehood. On the surface, it looks like a decisive step in a region engulfed by conflict. In reality, it will change little. At best, recognition will be symbolic. At worst, it could further inflame the situation in the Middle East and beyond.

Tehran has been closely monitoring the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement signed on 8 August 2025 under Donald Trump’s mediation. Iran views U.S. contribution not as a benevolent initiative for peace and the TRIPP as a transit and trade project, but rather as part of a broader strategy aimed at reshaping the region’s geopolitical map to Iran’s (and Russia’s) detriment.

From Israel’s perspective, the primary threat posed by Iran is neither its missile capabilities, nor its nuclear program, but rather the Iran’s practical commitment to the concept of “resistance” – a cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy that opposes Israeli and American expansionism.

The Iran-Israel war is not a bolt from the blue. It is the direct consequence of two decades of dismantled norms, unchecked ambitions, and a deep misunderstanding of the region’s political fabric. And as always in the Middle East, when utopias fail, it is the people who pay the price.

Given Prime Minister Netanyahu's demonstrated willingness to pursue military action against Iran, the risk of direct confrontation appears increasingly likely. Current tensions suggest that escalation may be unavoidable in the near term.

Several major transportation projects can significantly reshape the economic map of the world. In this regard, the three C’s (confidence-building measures, cooperation, and complementarity) are the key factors in attaining sustainable security for the transport corridors’ operation in the Middle East.