The recent offensive by Syrian rebels which took control of several cities, particularly the strategic city of Aleppo, is a new development that, although surprising, was not strange. The Middle East region and Syria have many unresolved challenges that are capable of leading to a crisis and an uncertain future at any time under the influence of national, regional or international factors.
Apparently, various groups were present in the recent rebellion, which can be divided into two general spectrums.
The first one is the internal (Syrian) dissidents, including the Free Syrian Army, who have chosen armed action for various reasons to share power. The goal of this group is national and they are ready to compromise with the central government under certain conditions. However, the second spectrum, whose core is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (considered a terrorist organisation in Iran, Russia, the US, the EU and many other countries), consists of radical (non-Syrian) forces that pursue transnational terrorist goals.
Although Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has tried to distance itself from ISIS-like clothing and behaviour by rebranding and changing its appearance to that of a guerrilla force, its terrorist nature cannot be denied. Radicals and terrorists continue to be active within this group. The important thing is that on the sidelines of the riots and instability caused by Tahrir al-Sham, other terrorist forces will also have the opportunity to become active.
News and images released from the recent rebellion show that the forces of various nationalities are seen among them, with the same terrorist ideology as ISIS. This type of terrorism can be classified as borderless fifth wave terrorism. Although democratic shortcomings, economic and cultural deficiencies; failed, inefficient and weak governments; weak sovereignty and weak sovereign institutions; regional instability and international interventions are involved in the formation and activity of borderless terrorism, two characteristics distinguish this type of terrorism from traditional ones.
First, the ideology, members, targets, geography of operations, and consequences of this type of terrorism are transnational. Second, foreign powers manipulate this terrorism and use it as an instrument for their own purposes.
These two characteristics are seen in the radical forces currently active in Aleppo, Aleppo. That is, on the one hand, they consist of various nationalities including from Central Asia and Afghanistan, their slogans are cross-border and emphasise the expansion of operations in other countries, including Iran. On the other, the advanced equipment used in this rebellion, for example drones, also indicates foreign financing, training and support.
Therefore, we cannot be indifferent to their activities. The threats of this terrorism are multi-layered and can pose challenges in the medium or long term for various countries, from Syria, Iraq and Iran to Russia and Europe.
Meanwhile, the presence of numerous terrorists from Central Asia and Afghanistan in the rebellion is alarming for Iran and Russia. The perpetrators of terrorist acts in recent years in Iran (Kerman, Shiraz and in Russia (Moscow) were from these regions, and it is not a far stretch to say that if they gain power in Syria, we will witness more recruitment for borderless terrorism from Central Asia and Afghanistan, and also their goals and geography of operations will expand to Iran and Russia.
With this in mind, although Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is apparently different from ISIS and presents a more legitimate image, and although not all opposition forces in Syria are terrorists, there are certainly radical forces, remnants of ISIS and borderless terrorists among rebels, who will take advantage of power vacuums and instability to expand their activities. It is foreseeable that if they achieve more successes, the radical and terrorist spectrum will take the initiative from the more moderate opposition and expand their cross-border activities. In the meantime, there is also the possibility of a partial revival of ISIS, which is a serious risk.
Given this, the dimensions and consequences of borderless terrorism are not tactical, and attention should be paid to its strategic and long-term aspects. In particular, countries that may be the target of this terrorism should take this issue more seriously.
Iran may focus on Israel, Russia may focus on Ukraine, Turkey may pursue its own specific regional goals, Europe may not be willing to engage in further conflict in the Middle East, the threats to China may not be very tangible, and so on. Therefore, in the current situation, if the current radicals in Syria continue to advance, the possibility of the birth of another ISIS is not far-fetched. The damage of this issue will directly or indirectly affect all these countries in the short or long term.
In the meantime, the possibility that Iran and Russia will become the target of borderless terrorism is more than others for three reasons. First, the existence of suitable platforms for accepting extremism in their peripheral regions, including Afghanistan and Central Asia, Second, the possibility that enemies of Tehran and Moscow will use borderless terrorism to advance their goals regarding the two countries, Thirdly, Iran and Russia have been active in suppressing terrorism in Syria, and it is highly likely that the terrorists are thinking of revenge against these two countries. At the same time, as the example of ISIS shows, countries that are currently seeking to use this terrorism as a tool, can also be its victims in later stages.
From this perspective, a joint effort by Iran and Russia to create an active deterrence against borderless terrorism, rooted in Syria, seems essential. The positive experience of the two countries’ collaboration against ISIS in Syria is a good model for further counterterrorism. It is clear that Iran and Russia’s individual capabilities are not sufficient to effectively deter the threat. Therefore, in the next stage and given the extent of the threat, the response to it must be multi-layered, multi-level and collective. So, efforts to create a multilateral and regional-international format for collective preventive action are essential.
Basically, in the increasing dynamics of current developments in international politics, the contagion and dialectic of security and insecurity, stability and instability in the Middle East and those regions is obvious.
Considering common concerns in Iran, Russia, Central Asia, and China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s counterterrorism branch should become more active and prioritise collective and practical activity more seriously. Given the membership of some of these countries in BRICS, its capacities can also be used. Although there are differences among member-states, «effective deterrence against terrorism» can be a common point of cooperation.
Of course, we must be realistic, and as the Shanghai Organisation’s passivity towards developments in Afghanistan has shown, we cannot expect immediate and effective action from this organisation (or BRICS). Therefore, since the threat to Iran and Russia is more urgent than others, the two countries should take more immediate action by creating an axis of like-minded countries.
In addition to intelligence interaction, military and weapons assistance and advice, this cooperation should also be pursued in the political and media arena. In the meantime, highlighting the role of destructive foreign interference that creates power vacuums and a platform for rising borderless terrorism, as well as the instrumental use of this terrorism by some regional and international powers for their own purposes, should be considered even more than direct actions against terrorists. It is because, as mentioned, the foreign variable is more involved in the growth and activity of borderless terrorism than domestic factors. It is no secret that the US has been directly or indirectly involved in the arrangement and development of Al-Qaeda (The organization is banned in Russia) and ISIS activities.
Valdai Discussion Club
