Russia in Global Affairs

This article is an abridged version of the paper written for the International Valdai Discussion Club. The original version is available at: http://valdaiclub.com/a/valdai-papers/the-syrian-crisis-a-thorny-path-from-war-to-peace/   The…

The second decade of the 21st century began with a string of explosive protests in the Middle East and North Africa, which have destabilized not only the countries that saw violent regime change but the entire region. A way out of the profound systemic crisis is yet to be found.

It must be stated right from the outset that the outgoing year has failed to bring this long-suffering region either any perceptible change for the better or a consummation of aspirations that provided a powerful impetus to the million-strong protests in the Arab world seven years ago.

If the international community fails to establish acceptable and understandable rules of international behavior in the context of “revolutionary challenges,” the world may slip into a new round of global confrontation, which will be caused not by systemic contradictions but by vain disregard for real common threats.

The Arab Spring and the crisis in Syria merely aggravated contradictions that had formed a gap between Realpolitik and the observance of the de jure intact norms of international law. Today’s question is this: Is the international community able to take concerted actions or will inflated ambitions of regional centers of power gain the upper hand?

The present global interdependence makes any conflict take quite new, hitherto unknown shapes; so it is simply impossible to predict how events will develop if one simulates them on the basis of the experience of the “first” Cold War.

Can Kosovo’s imminent independence be seen as a precedent in resolving other internal state conflicts, including in the former Soviet republics? This problem has gone from being a subject of academic dispute to an explosive element of Realpolitik.

A simplified approach to the Middle East problems does not conform to local realities. It would be more fruitful to follow the ‘do-no-harm’ principle, separating what must be reformed from traditional elements of life that do not impede the modernization processes.