Russia in Global Affairs

The establishment of alternative routes, not vulnerable to NATO’s dominance, is critical for Russia. If Russia’s relations with the West improve, the project will remain important for enhancing Russia’s potential as a transit state in a normalized political environment. It will also serve as a safeguard against efforts to stifle the Russian economy by blocking its Black and Baltic Sea routes in the case of escalating tensions with the West. Moreover, Russia will benefit from a stimulus to develop its eastern territories and to deepen integration with Eurasia.

Dialogue with NATO as an organization is meaningless for Russia. However, Moscow should not dismiss the opportunity to talk and interact with NATO countries, primarily the United States, but also Turkey, Hungary, Finland, France, and Germany. Currently, this is necessary in order to at least reduce escalation risks and prevent incidents.

The Hamas attack on October 7 forces us to think about what the outbreak of a major regional conflict might look like in the near future, given the experience of the operation in Ukraine and the rapid, difficult-to-predict development of new technologies. 

Developments in the coming months will determine world politics for many years ahead, and the echoes of the latest events will be heard not only by the present, but also by future generations.

If the U.S. and NATO continue to step up their activity near Russia’s borders, it would have to take extra measures to ensure the security. As a result, Russia and NATO would wind up as hostages to a security dilemma, and the risk of conflict would rise.

The serious decline in Russia’s relations with the West has breathed a new life into NATO, which returned to its traditional role, the containment of Russia.

The analysis of the Russian Navy’s involvement in the Syrian campaign suggests two conclusions. The first one is rather optimistic: the Russian Navy has begun to recover after a long period of decline. The second one is less comforting: the Navy is already facing a shortage of ships of almost all major classes.

The World Ocean is a key space for international relations and military policies of the great powers. It depends only on Russia whether it becomes an active player in this space or a passive observer.