Russia in Global Affairs

The stand-off between Russia and the Western nations, which has been developing since 2014, escalated into an active confrontation with the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, back in late February. In other words, the Great Game has ceased to be a game. It has become total war, though a hybrid one so far, since the armed conflict in Ukraine is not of a full-scale nature at present.

In recent decades Russia has been too focused on the United States. Moscow initially had a strong desire to unite with it in friendship and harmony, but very soon it developed an equally strong urge to take revenge for its loss in the Cold War. Russian leaders and elites hopelessly expected that the United States would understand their problems and do the impossible—recognize Russia as an equal partner. On the eve of the third decade of the 21st century Russians should arm themselves with patience, set their eyes on the domestic affairs.

Russia and China’s strategic military cooperation is becoming ever closer. President Putin has announced that Russia is helping China build an early warning system to spot intercontinental ballistic missile launches.

Despite their troubles, Europe and the US are not withering away. It would behoove Moscow to avoid escalations.

The Kremlin needs to understand clearly that it is up against not just Japan but also the Russian public—and based on public opinion surveys, two-thirds of Russians do not want to hand over the Kuril Islands. The Kremlin will not be able to coerce the people into accepting its point of view.

The U.S.-Russia strategic relationship—the only one to have featured strategic arms control—is no longer central to global strategic stability.

Since 2014, Russia and the US have been engaged in a hybrid war, characterized by conflict in financial, technological, and ideological spheres. Regardless of the results of the summit, this hybrid war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. However, the relationship can and must be stabilized through clear understanding by both parties of the other side’s behavior and motivations

Policymakers need to learn from their military subordinates: They should keep their heads cool and think of the consequences of their actions, both intended and unintended.

To ensure its national security, Russia needs a comprehensive strategy in the South Caucasus region.